Archive | January, 2017

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 14 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: 01W closer to Vietnam; now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.

Tropical Analysis – 14 January 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: Tropical Depression (01W/Auring)
Watches/Warnings: None
Hazards: Scattered thunderstorms across southern Vietnam.  Seas 2-3 m.
Discussion: JMA and NCHMF are warning on this tropical depression.  Despite limit change in appearance on satellite, JTWC upgraded this area from being “too weak to classify” to medium risk, followed by an upgrade to a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.   That said, convection remains well displaced to the northwest as the center of circulation is exposed due to the strong wind shear present.  Although data may later justify advisories to be re-initiated by JTWC, no further intensification is anticipated.  If JTWC begins advisories, it will maintain the 01W identifier.

Forecast track with 01W is west-southwest, with landfall possible along the Mekong River Delta.  Regardless of the center track, the bulk of the rain remains well north of the center, which will affect South-Central, Southeast, and the Central Highland regions of the Vietnam.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (01W/Auring) – 14 January 2017 0600 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Invest 97W is poorly organized and facing wind shear.  Occasional heavy rain continues over portions of Bicol and Eastern Visayas.  No further development is anticipated.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (97W) – 14 January 2017 0600 UTC

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2017 Westernpacificweather.com

Weekend weather brief – January 14/15, 2017

NWPAC outlook, 14/15 JAN

NORTH

A complex weather scenario will play out over the eastern third of the north region as a nearly-stationary, and very strong, upper-level low pressure system spins over southeastern Russia. This system will push down waves of cold air and instability over the southeastern Russia, and especially Japan, where the sea-effect snow machine is running at full speed. From Hokkaido south to central Honshu along the Sea of Japan, and especially over the higher terrain of central Honshu, epic amounts of snowfall will settle in as this weather situation plays out over the weekend. Many areas are under avalanche advisories as the heavy snow accumulates along the steep mountain slopes. To the south and west, conditions are cold, but better, as high pressure dominates these locales. Air quality in Beijing will be decent today, but will start to deteriorate as the weekend progresses. Temperatures will be frigid across the northern third of the region and quite chilly in the lower two-thirds with afternoon highs remaining in the single digits C (30’s-40’s F).

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                          Sun

Ulaanbaatar -16 3 -19 -2 Mostly fair Partly cloudy
Vladivostok -8 18 -5 23 Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
Beijing 2 36 2 36 Mostly fair Partly cloudy
Seoul -4 25 1 34 Mostly fair Mostly fair
Tokyo 6 43 5 41 Partly cloudy Mostly fair
Shanghai 8 46 7 45 Partly cloudy Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Moisture streaming in from the southwest which is helping to fuel the complex weather scenario to the north will also bring about significant cloud cover and shower activity over the central region through the weekend. Aside from mostly fair conditions over the higher terrain of south-central China, the remainder of the region will see a gloomy weather situation play out. Temperatures will remain mild, ranging from the mid-teens to lower 20’s C (low 60’s to near 70 F) but with the lack of sunshine, it will feel a bit clammy and chilly across most of the region.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming 17 63 17 63 Mostly fair Mostly fair
Hong Kong 16 61 18 64 Sctd. showers Mostly cloudy
Taipei 16 61 16 61 Periods of rain Sctd. showers
Naha 17 63 17 63 Mostly cloudy Sctd. showers
Hanoi 21 70 21 70 Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy

 

SOUTH

Moisture associated with what remains of TD01W will affect southern Indochina through the weekend as the system falls apart and spreads moisture westward across the peninsula through the weekend. Tropical moisture from the rapidly-decaying 97W INVEST near the Philippines will also bring about scattered showers and thunderstorms to the central and northern provinces of the archipelago. Deep tropical moisture remains locked in over the southern half of the region, and will help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over many of these locales. Temperatures will be quite warm as afternoon highs climb into the lower 30’s C (upper 80’s to near 90 F) region-wide.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap 33 91 32 90 Sctd. showers Mostly cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 30 86 29 84 Sctd. t-storms Thunderstorms
Manila 31 88 29 84 Partly cloudy Mostly cloudy
Davao City 32 90 32 90 Sctd. t-storms Sctd. t-storms
Brunei 33 91 31 88 Sctd. t-storms Sctd. t-storms
Singapore 31 88 32 90 Sctd. t-storms Thunderstorms

 

TROPICS 

01W and 97W INVEST continue to deteriorate as the tropics quiet down region-wide…

TAAG, 14 JAN

Although still listed as a tropical depression on the J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) surface map, what remains of 01W is falling apart just east of Vietnam and is spreading moisture to the west over southern Indochina and to the northeast along a fading surge boundary over the northern South China Sea. This system will continue to break down and feed moisture into the area through the weekend. What remains of 97W INVEST is doing much of the same to portions of the central Philippines, as much of the moisture from this system is being ejected to the northeast by an incoming continental surge to the north. Overall, both systems are expected to carry on with a general downward trend for the foreseeable future, but will bring rainfall to the affected areas as the remnant moisture keeps moving generally to the east as the seasonal northeast monsoon pushes it along.

01W/97W full, 14 JAN

The remainder of the region will see a mix of sunshine, clouds, and few scattered thunderstorms as pockets of moisture get heated up by the ever-increasing afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will be uniformly mild across the region, with highs generally in the upper 20’s to low 30’s C (mid to upper 80’s F). For more information on this system, please refer to the “Western Pacific Tropical Update” by meteorologist Mike Adcock on this site.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

31

88 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Yap

29

84 29 84 Partly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Palau

31

88 29 84 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Chuuk

31

88 29 84 Partly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Pohnpei

30

86 29 84 Partly cloudy

Thunderstorms

Majuro

29

84 28 82 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Wake

28

82 27 81 Partly cloudy

Mostly fair

 

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 13 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: 01W still meandering in the South China Sea.

Tropical Analysis – 13 January 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: Tropical Depression (01W/Auring)
Watches/Warnings:  None
Hazards:  Nothing significant to report.
Discussion:  JMA continues to advise on 01W as a tropical depression, although no other agency–including the Vietnamese NCHMF–are warning on this system.  Despite the strong shear present, extensive showers and thunderstorms are present–displaced well north and west of the center.  Light to moderate rain coupled with occasional gusty winds are expected across southern regions of Vietnam as the disturbance drifts westward.  No further intensification is anticipated.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (01W/Auring) – 13 January 2017 0600 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Invest 97W remains poorly organized, battling shear that is displacing convection well to the north of the low-level “circulation” (and I use that term loosely). Occasional heavy rain is expected over portions of Bicol and Eastern Visayas with scattered showers elsewhere in the Visayas and southern Luzon regions.  No further development is anticipated.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (97W) – 13 January 2017 0600 UTC

After Invest 97W, the Western Pacific moves into a less favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation where there is a lower probability for tropical cyclone development. As such, elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2017 Westernpacificweather.com

DANGEROUS SNOW STORM DOMINATES JAPAN

An absurd amount of snowfall continues to dominate Japan today bringing brilliant snow conditions for those hitting the slopes this coming weekend but also dangerous travel weather and an increased risk of Avalanche.

First lets discuss what is bringing all of this snowfall.  Well of course Japans famous sea effect snowfall. (Video below)   A look at the Surface Analysis for North East Asia shows the winter weather setup dominating Japan. But typically this only lingers for 1-2 days at a time, and rarely longer and as not as potent as we are seeing this week. This is thanks to a blocking high north of a low pressure area near Kamchatka. This is holding that low in place which in return forces it to continue to interact with the high pressure over China setting up a tight pressure gradient across the sea of Japan.  (WEATHER 101: the tighter the pressure gradient the higher the winds) Typhoon strength wind gust up to 126kph are to be expected along the sea of Japan coastline including Akita, Niigata and Gifu prefectures through the work week. Other areas further north could see up to 108kph along with the additional snowfall in the forecast.

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Over the next 24hrs up to 90cm of snowfall is still possible in Hokoriku with another meter on top of that through Saturday and Sunday. On another note those in Tokyo there is a slight risk of snow Saturday afternoon through Evening, I wouldn’t say its 100% though since it might be to dry at the surface creating virga snow over the city, but the chance is still there.

For starters snowboarders and skiers (if you’re a blader you will drown, that is all) will have lots of powder to have fun with this weekend. Do note white out conditions and chilly temperatures really are going to dominate. But if you can get over that on piste conditions even will be superb over the coming days.  The snow should come down heavy enough that lines will be reset over the course of minutes throughout Saturday and Sunday.

I say on piste though, if you leave the ski resorts you run the risk of a extreme threat of Avalanche. When warnings like the one are posted below even the most skilled skiers sit back and go nope. Mother nature is no match, just stay at the resort and have fun kicking up the smooth powder stashes.  Avalanche report here. 

TRAVEL: The Japan Department of Infrastructure, Land and Transport has put out a advisory telling people to stay indoors or try not to travel this coming weekend unless during a emergency.  White out conditions will make roadways across Hokoriku very slick and dangerous especially mountain roads which already are challenging especially for people visiting the area.

 

The storm should start to calm on Monday but scattered snow showers will continue in to Tuesday before a break finally arrives mid-week.

Follow James Reynolds on Twitter, he is in Niigata this week documenting this storm.

!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:’https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+”://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js”;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,”script”,”twitter-wjs”);