Archive | February, 2017

Spring Weather Moves In – Daily Weather Brief February 20th

Spring is in the air today, in the north a classic spring storm rolls across Japan, the rainy season front is showing early signs of development in China and in the tropics the North East Monsoon albeit still present is starting to wane.


Japan is once again feeling the effects of a classic spring time storm to start off the week. This low has the support of a deep short wave trough tracking out of North East China along with a rather potent upper level jet, actually JMA anlaysis indicates a Jet Max around 140kts at 300hpa. In short lots of energy aloft to fuel a deepening low pressure area.


This is why winds across the Pacific coastline of Japan are expected to reach 120kph through Monday with coastal areas in Tokyo including Haneda forecasting wind gust up to 90kph. (Below is a TAF , Terminal Aerodome Forecast from Haneda)


Haneda TAF

Thus expect delays if flying around Japan today, heavy rain along with the occasional thunderstorm also accompany the cold front moving over the country.  Behind the front strong North West winds will blow in from Siberia kicking off a classic winter weather pattern over Japan adding more snow on top of the high snow pack already in place. Even after the recent warm up parts of Western Japan are actually still over 200% above their average snow pack.

Back to the west over Korea and North East China things are cool but dry. Dry air advisories are in place for most of South Korea today following the cold front early Monday morning.


Seoul Forecast


Right now things are looking pretty calm across Taiwan, the southern Japanese islands and south east China.  That will change though through mid week as the next area of low pressure develops along the Yangzi river basin kicking up wide spread showers through the region.

As we head in to March the early signs of the rainy season front will begin to show.  So enjoy the reprieve from the rains at least for now through this area.


The average high during the month of February in the Philippines is about 31C. The last few days though its been closer to 27-28 with lows in to the teens. This in other locations seems like nothing but in a area where heaters are pretty much non-existent it can have a big impact. Especially for places in Northern Luzon like Baguio City where the forecast low is expected to be around 10C.

For southern areas of the country heavy rain warnings have been issued today via PAGASA due to a surface trough of low pressure extending across the southern extend of the North East Monsoon. According to the GFS model up to 50mm is likely across the east coast of Mindanao due to the troughing.


Rainfall Forecast

Vietnam and Thailand are in the same situation, north east winds are waning leaving relatively calm conditions overall in the area.


Nothing to report captain, things are calm across the tropics outside of a few scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms over islands due to day time heating.

Right now no invest areas are in place and none are expected to be over the coming days.


Guam Forecast

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 16 February 2017

Bottom Line Up Front:  Heavy rains affecting portions of the Philippines.

Tropical Analysis – 16 February 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: None.

5-Day Tropical Discussion: 

A trough of low pressure area along southeastern Philippines continues drifting westward.  It is spreading heavy rains across Mindanao and the Visayas.  100-200 mm are possible over the eastern seaboard of the Philippines, increasing the threat for possible flash flooding and landslides.  Development of this disturbance is not anticipated.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike



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Philippines Hit With Cool Air in North, Heavy Rains i

A complex weather setup continues to dominate the Philippines today due to a combination of factors. For starters a tropical trough is lingering over Mindanao bringing heavy rain to the southern Island of the Philippines.


Synoptic Setup

Fueling up this trough is cool air aloft due to a cold surge that has been bringing the coldest air of the season to the Northern Philippines this past week. There has even been reports of frost in the rural foothills of northern Luzon. 

Good news this foul weather pattern should end through the weekend with temperatures across Luzon getting back to normal and the trough in the south tapering off.