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Western Pacific Tropical Update – 3 February 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: 98W on track to become next tropical depression.

Tropical Analysis - 3 February 2017 0600 UTC

Tropical Analysis – 3 February 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: None.

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Invest 98W remains unorganized and very broad with deep convection displaced well northeast, leaving the center of circulation well-exposed.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue for Palau and Yap state as the low pressure area slowly marches westward toward the Philippine Sea.  Although shear will continue to hamper development, forecast consensus points toward tropical depression development over the next couple of days.  The main threat remains heavy rainfall for Palau and Yap state as the Philippines should be generally spared from the low as a robust cold front passes through Japan, ejecting 98W toward the northeast–briefly–before losing its steering support.

Currently, JMA forecasts a tropical depression within 24 hours, PAGASA forecasts a tropical cyclone may develop within the next 24-36 hours, and JTWC has heightened their probability for development to medium.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (98W) - 3 February 2017 0600 UTC

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (98W) – 3 February 2017 0600 UTC

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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