Archive | February 5, 2017

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 5 February 2017

Bottom Line Up Front:  Tropical Depression Bising pivoting away from the Philippines.

Tropical Analysis – 5 February 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: Tropical Depression (98W/Bising)
Watches/Warnings: No tropical cyclone watches or warning.  Gale warning in effect for the eastern seaboards of Southeast Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.
Hazards: High surf along eastern seaboards of Philippines and western seaboard of Palau.
Discussion: Bising remains poorly organized with the bulk of the convection well north of the center of circulation, leaving the center partially exposed.  This convection, enhanced by the Northeast Monsoon, is generating winds near 55 km/h.  This convection is bringing showers and gusty winds to eastern portions of the Philippines.  As a cold front passes through Japan, this is helping to shift Bising toward the northeast, away from the Philippines.  From this point forward, Bising will battle increasing shear.

Right now, agency forecasts are split.  JMA maintains the system as a tropical depression, then strengthening to a tropical storm by midday on Monday.  Meanwhile, PAGASA holds the intensity at tropical depression-strength.  JTWC–noting the lack of convection over the center–has downgraded the invest to low risk for development.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (98W/Bising) – 5 February 2017 0600 UTC

JMA Forecast Track, Tropical Depression (98W/Bising) - 5 February 2017 0600 UTC

JMA Forecast Track, Tropical Depression (98W/Bising) – 5 February 2017 0600 UTC


5-Day Tropical Discussion: 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike



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