Archive | February 6, 2017


It’s time to take a look at the week ahead across the western pacific today.  As far as early February is concerned there is really nothing too far out of the usual.  A winter storm is hitting northern Japan, cool temperatures and light rain dominate south east China and the north east monsoon is the overall weather control factor in the south. Finally a little TD who really cant get his act together is lingering in the tropics.


The snow storm over Japan is a result of a low moving east of Hokkaido kicking off a classic winter weather setup over the country. That along typically brings snow but what we are also seeing in parts of Hokoriku and the Sea of Japan coast of Tohoku is high winds. In Yamagata winds over 100kph were reported Monday morning.

One thing the low did do is a head of it kick up temperatures along the Pacific coast of Japan. But that will not last long as a steady temperature decrease is forecasted through mid week.


The cold air will continue to spill in from North East China and Siberia where typical February temperatures continue to dominate. The high in Harbin for example is -9C with a low around -20C.


Further south in South Eastern China and the Southern Japanese islands cloudy conditions along the leading edge of the latest cold surge will prevail. Outside of Tuesday this week cloudy conditions with passing showers will dominate Naha.

In Hong Kong Temperatures will linger in the teens to low 20s with foggy conditions especially in the morning due to the same weather setup.


The north east monsoon prevails, there is gale force winds in Northern Luzon a combination on the monsoon and a semi-interaction with a TD east of the Philippines.

Meanwhile in Vietnam and Thailand things are staying relatively dry as well.


The Tropical Depression lingering east of the Philippines (known as Bising via PAGASA) continues to be sheared apart by the north east monsoon.  Overall this is going to continue to linger but will not at least  as of now have a significant impact on the Philippines. Maybe later this week some of the moisture will from it could drift over Mindanoa but overall this will stay a weak TD and is not something to terribly worry about.

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 6 February 2017

Bottom Line Up Front:  Tropical Depression Bising on last breath.

Tropical Analysis – 6 February 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: Tropical Depression (98W/Bising)
Watches/Warnings: No tropical cyclone watches or warning.
Hazards: High surf along eastern seaboards of Philippines and western seaboard of Palau, mostly from Northeast Monsoon, but enhanced by Bising.
Discussion: Shear is winning the battle again Bising this afternoon.  The cold front over Japan will continue to usher shear over the Philippine Sea while cutting off steering support for the system.  As a result, Bising should continue weakening and meandering across the Philippine Sea.  Although it is weakening, remnants showers will linger for a few more days, increasing the possibility of isolated showers for eastern portions of the Philippines.

National agencies are in agreement of this scenario.  JMA no longer forecasting Bising to become a tropical storm, although it maintained it as a depression at 0000 UTC.  PAGASA maintains depression status, noting weakening as well.  JTWC no longer suspects the area for development.  Moreover, there was no 0600 UTC analysis and the invest may be removed soon.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (98W/Bising) – 6 February 2017 0600 UTC


5-Day Tropical Discussion: 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike



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