Archive | February 7, 2017

DAILY WEATHER BRIEF – FEBRUARY 7th

It is the 7th of February 2017 and at least for now the tropics continue to fizzle and the winter storm over Japan will take a little break before turning back on full heading in to the weekend.

 

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NASA HIGH RESOLUTION VIS SATELLITE FEBRUARY 7th

North

 

I am actually pretty impressed with the sea effect snow over the past 24hrs. With a relatively short setup the dynamics managed to come together and turn on a pretty severe storm. Winds in parts of Hokoriku and Tohoku got up to 80kph along with snowfall topping 40cm over the past 24hrs.

 

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Snowfall Reports on NHKWORLD

Now as we head in to mid-week there will be a short break or what would better describe would be a “slow down” before things turn back on full by Thursday in to Friday across Japan.

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Cars Stuck in Snow Late January in Tottori

A low pressure area pulling in out of eastern China will drop southerly moisture in across western and Central Japan to wrap up the work week. This will result in a short temperature spike but it’s not going to be strong and not very intense before the cold air behind the low barrels its way in.

 

Maybe steam rolling its way in might be better to describe it as well, the cold air with sub-zero temperatures will spill in hard as far south as Kyushu bringing heavy snow at times with it through Friday.  In Tottori prefecture residents will experience a similar amount of snow they seen a few weeks ago when there was over 100 cars stranded on a roadway in the prefecture.

 

The heaviest stuff will be back in “ski country” to the north. So for those looking forward to some fresh powder this weekend I am sure there will be tons of it in supply.

 

Central

 

Before the low moves north east and rolls over Japan it will bring scattered showers along the Yangzi river basin through Wednesday and Thursday.  Chinese radar shows already this area receiving heavy rainfall.  For now it should not be that intense but do remember in the near future we will start talking more and more about the “rainy season front” a big flood maker in this area.

 

South

The north east monsoon prevails, there is gale force winds in Northern Luzon a combination on the monsoon and a semi-interaction with a TD east of the Philippines.

 

Meanwhile in Vietnam and Thailand things are staying relatively dry as well.

 

20170207-0600-99w-metsat

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (98W/Ex-Bising) – 7 February 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: Tropical Depression (99W/Ex-Bising) (From Mike Adcock’s Tropical Update.

Watches/Warnings: No tropical cyclone watches or warning.

Hazards: High surf along eastern seaboards of Philippines and western seaboard of Palau, mostly from Northeast Monsoon, but enhanced by Bising.

Discussion: Shear continues to win against the tropical depression this afternoon, but persistent convection is keeping the storm afloat.  The tropical depression is cut off from steering currents, allowing it to meander in the Philippine Sea for the next couple days before drifting southwestward by this weekend.

JMA is maintaining tropical depression intensity, due to the persistent convection but likely a generous call.  PAGASA has dropped warnings on what was known as Bising.  Meanwhile, JTWC has dropped Invest 98W from their bulletin, but re-added it as Invest 99W, focused on the current convective blob moving forward.  With shear expected to be high and dry air being mixed into the system, their give the area a “low” chance at development.

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Western Pacific Tropical Update – 7 February 2017

Bottom Line Up Front:  Tropical Depression (Ex-Bising) holding onto its convection.

Tropical Analysis – 7 February 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: Tropical Depression (99W/Ex-Bising)
Watches/Warnings: No tropical cyclone watches or warning.
Hazards: High surf along eastern seaboards of Philippines and western seaboard of Palau, mostly from Northeast Monsoon, but enhanced by Bising.
Discussion: Shear continues to win against the tropical depression this afternoon, but persistent convection is keeping the storm afloat.  The tropical depression is cut off from steering currents, allowing it to meander in the Philippine Sea for the next couple days before drifting southwestward by this weekend.

JMA is maintaining tropical depression intensity, due to the persistent convection but likely a generous call.  PAGASA has dropped warnings on what was known as Bising.  Meanwhile, JTWC has dropped Invest 98W from their bulletin, but re-added it as Invest 99W, focused on the current convective blob moving forward.  With shear expected to be high and dry air being mixed into the system, their give the area a “low” chance at development.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (98W/Ex-Bising) – 7 February 2017 0600 UTC

 

5-Day Tropical Discussion: 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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