Archive | February 8, 2017

Winter Storm Tracking Over Japan, Forecast and Possible Impact

Another winter storm is set to impact Japan through the rest of the week bringing heavy snow across Ski Country of Japan but also in areas that do not typically see the white stuff including Tokyo.


This storm is developing near Shanghai and will continue to track north east through the rest of Wednesday and Thursday bringing wide spread moisture throughout Japan. For those in Kyushu the rain is already started here on Wednesday evening but as we head through the overnight hours most of it will be changing over to snow. Much of Japan will see spotty showers and snow showers as the low tracks over the country and then along the pacific coast of Japan.


Tokyo 24hr Forecast Through Thursday

Any time we see a low track along the pacific coast this time of year the chance of snow in Tokyo dramatically increases. This is because the city often sees sub-zero temperatures but the mountains across central areas of Honshu keep things dry typically in the city. If these storms miss those mountains then that means moisture in the down town area. Check out more details on this in the video below.

Right now things do look cold enough and there will be enough moisture for some wet snow and possible accumulations in western areas of Tokyo and around the greater Tokyo area.  As we know in the past any snow in the Tokyo area often results in major issues especially for travel including delays on the roads but also on many of the trains.

This video shows images from Tokyo during a record breaking storm in 2014.

Snow in Ski Country


Once this low pushes by it will also kick off strong north westerly winds blowing in heavy snow from Hokkaido all the way to Western Honshu. For those hitting the slopes this coming weekend expect at least 30cm of fresh powder by Saturday morning but I believe it could be even more than that in a few areas.


In short if you have travel plans on Thursday be ready for some delays on the roads and trains. At the very least do bundle up and where snow/rain boots if you are headed out. That includes the Tokyo Metro area.



Western Pacific Tropical Update – 8 February 2017

Bottom Line Up Front:  All agencies downgrade Ex-Bising to a low pressure area.

Tropical Analysis – 8 February 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: None.

Since last update, JMA has followed suit in downgrading 99W into a low pressure area.  Deep convection continues over the northeastern side of the circulation, but strong shear and dry air will prevent any re-development.  I occur with JTWC’s assessment in 99W being marked as “low” chance at development.  The remnants are expected to meander in the Philippine Sea over the next several days.  With that, there is an increased rainfall expected for Palau this week.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (99W/Ex-Bising) – 8 February 2017 0600 UTC


5-Day Tropical Discussion: 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike



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