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Archive | February 14, 2017

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 14 February 2017

Bottom Line Up Front:  Low Pressure Area in Philippine Sea set to bring heavy rain to northeastern Mindanao.

Tropical Analysis – 14 February 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: None.

5-Day Tropical Discussion: 

We’re keeping an eye on a low pressure area in the southern Philippine Sea.  Convection with this is well-displaced north of the circulation, influence by enhanced confluence from the remnants of an old stationary front coupled with the Northeast Monsoon.  This low is expected to drift westward toward Mindanao on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing heavy rainfall.  100-200 mm are possible over coastal areas of the Surigao provinces, increasing the threat for possible flash flooding and landslides.  Development of this low is not anticipated.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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Daily Weather Brief – February 14th

It’s the 14th of February and that means Valentines day is here so be sure to enjoy this relatively calm weather day across the western pacific and spend some time out doors with that special someone.

 

Do note I mention a relatively calm weather day, that means there are still a few areas of interest out there we can talk about today.

 

North

 

The worst weather in North East Asia is along the sea of Japan coastline where sea effect snow continues to drop me accumulations in a area that has already been battered with record snowfall over the past 5 days. In Tottori prefecture snow depth totals have climbed to well above average numbers with some areas hitting well over a meter of snow on the ground with average snow depths are only a few centimeters.

 

This of course has resulted in wide spread problems for the area, with all schools in Tottori being shut down to start off the week, along with wide spread travel delays.

 

A upper level low is moving over western Japan today and could add another 20-30cm of snowfall to the region. Meanwhile in Tokyo some energy could make its way over the mountains bringing a few flurries and some blustery conditions to the metro area. Not enough to cause problems but still noticeable.  Good news for those who do not like the cold is that southerly winds will work their way in to east Asia from Taiwan through Japan heading in to the weekend. That means warming temperatures to well above average marks at least for a short period of time from Friday in to Saturday.

tokyo

High pressure is dominating north east china, creating another day of haze and smog in the region.  The US Embassy in Beijing as of Tuesday morning is reporting a “unhealthy AQI”.  The worst though is to the south east of China’s capital where indices are in the hazardous level. http://aqicn.org/city/beijing/

 

Central

 

South Eastern China and Taiwan is fairly calm today, temperatures are in the teens to low twenties with partly cloudy skies dominating. The big topic is later this week when southerly winds kick in and push temperatures up to spring/summer levels in the region. For now though I suggest enjoying the calm weather in this region as the rainy season front will be setting up soon ushering in the flood season for South East China.

hong-kong

South

 

Its all about that north east monsoon.  Winds could be gusting up to 40-50kph along coastal areas of Vietnam and south through Thailand but as far as any organized thunderstorms or tropical activity there is none to really speak of.

 

The north east monsoon is bringing slightly “cooler” temperatures in the Philippines with Manila’s high hitting 28C. That’s about as cold as it gets for a high temperatures for that city.

Meanwhile other parts of the Philippines along the East coast of Luzon are under gale and high wave warnings up to 3-4 meters.

view

Tropical IR SAT

Tropics

 

A little blob is lingering east of the Philippines today, this could eventually increase rainfall by the end of the week for the southern Philippines, nothing to extreme though or really out of the usual for this time of year.

 

Elsewhere the Westpac high is dominating. For those in Guam and the Mariana islands expect a typical warm day in the tropics with the threat of isolated afternoon showers.