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Western Pacific Tropical Update – 14 February 2017

Bottom Line Up Front:  Low Pressure Area in Philippine Sea set to bring heavy rain to northeastern Mindanao.

Tropical Analysis – 14 February 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: None.

5-Day Tropical Discussion: 

We’re keeping an eye on a low pressure area in the southern Philippine Sea.  Convection with this is well-displaced north of the circulation, influence by enhanced confluence from the remnants of an old stationary front coupled with the Northeast Monsoon.  This low is expected to drift westward toward Mindanao on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing heavy rainfall.  100-200 mm are possible over coastal areas of the Surigao provinces, increasing the threat for possible flash flooding and landslides.  Development of this low is not anticipated.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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