Archive | February 15, 2017

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 15 February 2017

Bottom Line Up Front:  Low Pressure Area in Philippine Sea edges closer to Mindanao, set to bring rain to the Philippines.

Tropical Analysis – 15 February 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: None.

5-Day Tropical Discussion: 

The low pressure area in the southwestern Philippine Sea continues drifting westward.  For the remainder of the week, heavy rain is possible across the southern Philippines.  Convection with this is well-displaced north of the circulation, influence by enhanced confluence from the remnants of an old stationary front coupled with the Northeast Monsoon.  100-200 mm are possible over coastal areas of the Surigao provinces, increasing the threat for possible flash flooding and landslides.  Development of this low is not anticipated.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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