Archive | April, 2017

Tropical Storm Muifa, First Named Storm of 2017

We now officially have our first named tropical storm of the 2017 Typhoon Season. “Muifa” This one is not a threat to any major land areas though and will quickly get absorbed by a passing trough to the north.


Don’t panic, yes JMA is tracking a Tropical Depression east of the Philippines, but it should quickly become absorbed by a passing mid-latitude trough through mid-week without bringing any impact to the Philippines or any major land masses for that matter.



As of Monday morning the Tropical Depression was looking rather organized on


Vis / IR Sat Monday Morning

satellite imagery as it pulled north west to the east of the Philippines. Good news is that a trough diving south out of North East Asia through mid-week will hook this low and reel it in to the north.  Most numerical models all agree with this forecast as my personal views on it based on the current synoptic situation.

In short, it looks interesting, and given it is April our ears have perked up towards it, but in the end its just something to look at with no real threat.

Tropics Remain April Like (April 20th )

The tropics remain calm this week following Tropical Depression Crising this past weekend that left 8 dead in Visayas and resulted in wide spread flooding across the central Philippines.


Now typical April weather is back and we are continuing to see the “Philippine summer” dominate the Philippines. Do note though the remnants of Crising can be seen swirling just north of Luzon this Thursday. It is doing little more than bringing breezy conditions and low lying clouds to the region though as it gets absorbed by a passing mid-latitude trough to the north.


The start of the south west monsoon slowly working its way in to the Indo-china peninsula resulting in increasing afternoon thunderstorms for Thailand.


Tropical Forecast (Click here to see the JTWC Forecast Map)


JMA and JTWC both have no short range outlooks in the tropics while models keep things pretty limited as well. At least for now we can all relax and continue to enjoy this lull in the typically active western pacific basin.





A big rain maker in the forecast for Visayas and eastern Mindanao over the coming days with up to 100mm of rain in coastal Leyte and Samar is very well likely with lesser amounts extending inland towards Cebu and Cagayan.


This is all the result of a low pressure area that has gained an impressive amount of organization over the past 24hrs in the Philippine Sea. ( Commonly known as the Philippine Sea Effect ) Do not expect this TD to reach Tropical Storm Status but as we have seen in the past this far south in the Philippines even weak Tropical Depressions can cause problems. One of the deadlier storms in recent memory “Washi” was just a Tropical Storm when it came on shore but still it resulted in mass casualties across northern Mindanao. I am not saying this storm has that potential but just reminding you that these storms albeit small and now to strong can still pack a punch.


Info From PAGASA as of early Friday Morning, check their Facebook here for latest information


YELLOW Warning Level: #DavaoOriental (Boston, Cateel, Baganga, Caraga), #SurigaodelSur (Bislig, Lingig), #AgusandelSur (Trento, SantaJosefa)
*FLOODING is POSSIBLE in low lying areas especially along river channels.


More info. will be posted later today. Stay safe everyone!