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Archive | April 10, 2017

TROPICS START TO SHOW SIGNS OF ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC

The tropics have been rather calm recently keeping our updates on the limited side over the course of the last few months.  That could change over the coming week though as things start to pick up in the western pacific with the waning of the North East Monsoon and the slow improvement of conditions conducive for tropical development in the western pacific.

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The most recent sign of development is “invest 92w” a blob at this time south of Guam. A few numerical models are calling for this area to become our next named Westpac storm later on this week. This includes the highly reliable in long range tropical predictions GFS model.   That model specifically is calling for a rather strong storm while the JMA, CMC and NAVGEM all indicate a low pressure area forming but barely reaching tropical storm intensity. (As of Monday Morning)

 

gfs

GFS MODEL FOR SATURDAY EVENING (MONDAY MORNING RUN)

(Personal Thoughts)

 

The GFS is a good indicator on development or not in the long range. Do not take its forecast as the honest truth though as its long range intensity outlooks tend to range dramatically. With that said I think development of a storm is possible and the coast of Luzon should watch for the threat closely over the coming week.  At the very least we could be looking at a big rain maker in the Philippines and possibly Palau and Yap.

On the hand the storm could fizzle out and not much could occur if it runs in to a strong enough dry pocket over the next 24hrs. I do not think this is likely but it is possible.

 

Japan?

 

If and when the storm likely re-curves it would go extra-tropical quick while pulling north. This means heavy rain and high winds but a quick moving storm. At least from a climatic view point, which at this point is really what we have to use given we are looking at a long range forecast with limited initial information on the low.

 

For now relax and lets watch how it develops.

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