Archive | April, 2017

TROPICS START TO SHOW SIGNS OF ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC

The tropics have been rather calm recently keeping our updates on the limited side over the course of the last few months.  That could change over the coming week though as things start to pick up in the western pacific with the waning of the North East Monsoon and the slow improvement of conditions conducive for tropical development in the western pacific.

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The most recent sign of development is “invest 92w” a blob at this time south of Guam. A few numerical models are calling for this area to become our next named Westpac storm later on this week. This includes the highly reliable in long range tropical predictions GFS model.   That model specifically is calling for a rather strong storm while the JMA, CMC and NAVGEM all indicate a low pressure area forming but barely reaching tropical storm intensity. (As of Monday Morning)

 

gfs

GFS MODEL FOR SATURDAY EVENING (MONDAY MORNING RUN)

(Personal Thoughts)

 

The GFS is a good indicator on development or not in the long range. Do not take its forecast as the honest truth though as its long range intensity outlooks tend to range dramatically. With that said I think development of a storm is possible and the coast of Luzon should watch for the threat closely over the coming week.  At the very least we could be looking at a big rain maker in the Philippines and possibly Palau and Yap.

On the hand the storm could fizzle out and not much could occur if it runs in to a strong enough dry pocket over the next 24hrs. I do not think this is likely but it is possible.

 

Japan?

 

If and when the storm likely re-curves it would go extra-tropical quick while pulling north. This means heavy rain and high winds but a quick moving storm. At least from a climatic view point, which at this point is really what we have to use given we are looking at a long range forecast with limited initial information on the low.

 

For now relax and lets watch how it develops.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE COOK NEARS LANDFALL IN NEW CALEDONIA

Cyclone Cook is nearing landfall in New Caledonia today threatening to bring damaging winds, storm surge and flooding rains across the French Southern Pacific Island through Monday in to Tuesday.

 eye

As of Monday morning the well defined eye of the storm is clearly visible on radar nearing the island.  Max winds at landfall could be up to Category 4 on the Fiji scale or a 1-2 of the Saffir Simpson scale used the in Atlantic. This is enough to down trees, knock out power and create a coastal storm surge that could flood low lying homes where winds are coming on shore in the right front of the storm.

Noumea a city of about 100,000 people and the capital of New Caledonia is right in the storms path, good news is located on the west side of the island providing a little cover from. The east coast is much more rural but still towns like Thio and St. Phillipe II directly across the island from Noumea will take the brunt of Cook.

Cook

The mountains of New Caledonia are high are rise sharply out of the ocean. This enhance rain showers as moisture comes on shore triggering the threat of heavy rains and flooding. Over 200mm is possible in the heavier bands of rain. Across the mountains mudslides is also concern.

New Caledonia should see the storm pass by Tuesday afternoon, this is when we will be changing out attention towards New Zealand. The north edge of the North Island was severely hit by floods last week due to the remnants of Cyclone Debbie over the area.  With the grounds already saturated and rivers above average levels another slow moving rain maker over the area could deal a fairly harsh blow to New Zealand.

I will post more information on the New Zealand threat later this week, for now all eyes are on New Caledonia.