Tropical Depression Developing Near the Philippines


It has been a rather calm tropical season in the western pacific and the northern hemisphere for that matter thus far this year, but things are slowly starting to fire up, or more like a slow burn in the waters off the Philippines.


  • A tropical depression has developed west of the Philippines according to JMA.
  • JTWC maintains a “medium chance for development in the next 24hrs”.
  • Models take the storm north towards Hong Kong with the worst of the weather east of the city Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
  • The rain should slowly taper off in the Philippines yet North East Luzon will still see showers associated with feeder bands with the South West Monsoon.

Over the weekend a area of convection blew up rather swiftly over the Philippines creating wide spread rainfall in across the archipelago. Since then JMA has upgraded the low to a “minor tropical depression”. At this point they are not forecasting a tropical storm but given the rate of development with the TD it is very possible.


The current forecast takes the storm north towards Hong Kong but models are varied on the intensity forecast with the GFS barely developing it and the HWRF dropping the pressure down to about 980hpa or a strong tropical storm but not quite a typhoon.

It should be a rain maker at the very least for Guangdong Province by Monday in to Tuesday. The video above breaks down what the forecast looks like and why it is tracking the way it is.


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