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THE TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC SHOWS SIGNS OF ACTIVITY IN JULY

It’s been an unusually calm 2017 Typhoon Season in the Western Pacific. Yes we have a had a handful of tropical depressions (named by PAGASA) and two official tropical storms “Muifia” and “Merbok” but we continue to lack any typhoons as of the end of June. For those who are not used to the Western Pacific and the typhoons associated with it this highly unusual, even more unusual that the Atlantic has seen more tropical storms than the WestPac as of this time. This is due to a few reasons but instead of getting in to more of what has been happening, lets looking ahead at the forecast because the calm weather is set to change in the near future.

Not to be a model caster but the first thing that did catch my attention this morning was the GFS and NAVGEM numerical models kicking out pretty interesting outputs including a Typhoon Near the Southern Japanese islands sometime between the 4th and 7th of July. The GFS specifically has hit this same result for several model runs which lends to more confidence that something is brewing in the forecast. The ECMWF and JMA models still are not jumping on anything just yet but they tend to be poor initializers on tropical systems in the western pacific based on past experience.

models

Putting the models aside just by glancing at a satellite picture you can see that there is all sorts of convection flaring up. Including a Invest that once was a TCFA via JTWC (97W). This area is worth watching for now, most models are not very supportive of it outside of the US Military’s COAMPS and it will be moving closer to the rainy season front soon which should disrupt its convection.

Sat Upate

Elsewhere we see a tropical wave over the Philippines and another back towards Chuuk in Micronesia. But heading in to next week a proverbial match will be lit as the MJO is expected to move in to the Western Pacific increasing atmospheric instability and thus the threat of the development of tropical systems. This matches up with fairly well with the aforementioned numerical models looking to developing a storm in to next week.

MJO

MJO OUTLOOK, NOTE INCREASE IN THE NEXT 1-5 DAYS OVER THE WESTPAC

The Final Point?

All of that jargon means in short that things are getting more interesting in the near future across the tropics, for weather forecasters (like myself) it is time to start to refresh those tropical forecasting skills and prepare ways of presenting the information. For the general person getting those emergency supplies ready in the event of a typhoon is always a smart idea. Even if you are not impacted in the upcoming week having the proper gear and plan in place in case of a incoming storm is always a good idea.

nihongo

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2 Responses to “THE TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC SHOWS SIGNS OF ACTIVITY IN JULY”

  1. Slow starts seem to have been a fairly common occurrence these past few years. In the past eight years, only 2011, 2012, and 2015 have seen near or above average Accumulated Cyclone Energy by the end of June.

  2. Don’t care about nanmadol? I know it’s not a great storm, and it sounds like a painkiller, but come on Roberto!! It’s been named!! Get excited! I did! Was hoping for a day off tomorrow..no chance, aint even a breeze here in Kaohsiung, but still, things are starting to spin!

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