Archive | July 24, 2017


Its another tropical extravaganza in the western pacific today with 3 named storm turning up the oceans and another one who is likely to develop near the Philippines.

This one near the Philippines is my biggest worry as far as human impact since it will be tracking north skirting the east coast of the island nation.  Any time we see this particular set up at this particular time of year we also see a phenomena called the enhanced monsoon or in the Philippines the “Habagat”.  When this happens we can expect days of rainfall across the country including the Metro area of Manila.

rainfall outlook

At this time this storm is expected to intensify and will likely be named “Nesat” by JMA once its sustained winds reach the 35kt threshold. At that point JMA and likely by then PAGASA will have a forecast track out on this storm likely heading north just off the Philippine east coast.  This would keep the center line east of the islands but as mentioned before the core of the storm including its track is not the biggest thing people should be looking at this one.

Philippines Sat

As it tracks north south westerly winds will increase off the south china sea, some areas through the latter part of the week could see up to 300-400mm of rains. This will increase the threat of flooding especially in Urban areas with poor drainage. A common problem in downtown Manila. Remember just a few years ago when a nearly the same set up occurred causing wide spread flooding in the Metro area. (Video below.)

Eventually Nesat also could be come problematic for Taiwan and the Southern Japanese islands, specifically Ishigaki-Jima.  I think at this time it should not be a full blown typhoon when it nears these areas but still it could be carrying with some damaging winds and of course heavy rainfall. Thus time to watch it if you are in any of the aforementioned areas.

Actually given the tropics across the Western Pacific are lighting up like a Summer Time Fireworks festival I would suggest  any one along a tropical coastline in the western pacific to have a wary eye out in the tropics.


The tropics are extremely active today with 8 storms scattered across the northern pacific, not only that but we also have the 2nd latest typhoon on record developing to the east of Japan.

In today’s video I break down everything taking place in the tropics west of the international date line, from the floods we are seeing in Vietnam to the Fujiwhara effect setting up near the Ogasawara islands of Japan.

Tropical Overview