Archive | October 21, 2017

Typhoon Lan to weaken before landing near Tokyo Monday morning

Good morning from the Western Pacific Weather team.

As we get closer to the time period when Lan is expected to make landfall, we have some encouraging news. Due to a bit of shear along with cooler waters, typhoon Lan is expected to weaken as it approaches and makes landfall near Tokyo. For the moment, the storm is still very strong and packing sustained winds of 180 kph according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The satellite imagery provides an interesting perspective as we have a significant cloud formation northwest of the actual typhoon.

Winds of at least 35 knots are extending out as far west as Okinawa. However, the main rain interaction is across the main island of Japan and extending into Hokkaido. The storm will continue to move northeast throughout the day, and winds will begin to pick up for those living across western, central, and eastern Japan as Sunday rolls on.

It looks like the system will weaken a bit as we head into the overnight period with the resistance from the shear aloft along with the interaction from land. Be that as it may, it will still likely land as a strong typhoon near Tokyo around daybreak Monday, and that could still cause significant disruptions to public transportation for the morning hours. Flash flooding, along with storm surge due to the high waves and powerful winds, will be of concern for those along the Pacific coastline.

Winds are expected to be sustained at 70 knots at around landfall, though depending on how much Lan actually weakens, we could see much weaker winds on land around the morning hours – up to 50 knots sustained, especially along the low coastal areas.

The system will transform into an post-tropical cyclone by Monday and should be a shell of its former self by Tuesday, though it will likely be windy and wet for those in northern Japan until the system clears the region.

Jonathan Oh
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather

20171022 Sunday 22 UTC Track

Typhoon Lan to make landfall late Sunday/early Monday

Good evening from the Western Pacific Weather team.

Typhoon Lan continues to threaten Japan with its powerful winds, high surf, and torrential rainfall. It is looking increasingly certain that Lan will make landfall west of the Izu Peninsula overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

For a look at the situation, here is a video update from the team.

Jonathan Oh
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather

Lan a powerful storm, likely making landfall southwest of Tokyo Monday morning

Good morning from the Western Pacific Weather team.

On this Saturday morning, we are looking at a powerful Typhoon Lan. The storm is now Very Strong and is Very Large in scale. Satellite imagery provides a clearly defined view of the eye, and it is interacting well with the stationary front that is south of Honshu. We should see deteriorating conditions for the Okinawa Islands progressing through Saturday into Sunday.

It is becoming increasingly likely that Lan will make landfall southwest of Tokyo Monday morning local time. However, the wraparound moisture along with the forward momentum of the system will bring serious heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding along with powerful winds that could cause some damage from Nagoya eastward. Those between Kansai and Kanto regions should be preparing for the powerful system to really disrupt life in terms of public transportation overnight Sunday throughout the daytime hours on Monday.

Once Lan interacts with Japan Monday, the system will quickly depart and weaken into a post-cyclonic system, though it will still kick things up with rain and winds for those in northern Japan for several hours before completely leaving the scene.

Jonathan Oh
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather

20171021 Friday 21 UTC Track