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Typhoon Lan to weaken before landing near Tokyo Monday morning

Good morning from the Western Pacific Weather team.

As we get closer to the time period when Lan is expected to make landfall, we have some encouraging news. Due to a bit of shear along with cooler waters, typhoon Lan is expected to weaken as it approaches and makes landfall near Tokyo. For the moment, the storm is still very strong and packing sustained winds of 180 kph according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The satellite imagery provides an interesting perspective as we have a significant cloud formation northwest of the actual typhoon.

Winds of at least 35 knots are extending out as far west as Okinawa. However, the main rain interaction is across the main island of Japan and extending into Hokkaido. The storm will continue to move northeast throughout the day, and winds will begin to pick up for those living across western, central, and eastern Japan as Sunday rolls on.

It looks like the system will weaken a bit as we head into the overnight period with the resistance from the shear aloft along with the interaction from land. Be that as it may, it will still likely land as a strong typhoon near Tokyo around daybreak Monday, and that could still cause significant disruptions to public transportation for the morning hours. Flash flooding, along with storm surge due to the high waves and powerful winds, will be of concern for those along the Pacific coastline.

Winds are expected to be sustained at 70 knots at around landfall, though depending on how much Lan actually weakens, we could see much weaker winds on land around the morning hours – up to 50 knots sustained, especially along the low coastal areas.

The system will transform into an post-tropical cyclone by Monday and should be a shell of its former self by Tuesday, though it will likely be windy and wet for those in northern Japan until the system clears the region.

Jonathan Oh
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather

20171022 Sunday 22 UTC Track

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About Jonathan Oh

Jonathan Oh is a meteorologist on Western Pacific Weather and appearing on NHK World. Jonathan has been working in the field for more than 10 years with a focus on broadcast, radar, and computer model forecasting. He is currently based in Tokyo, Japan.

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