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Tropical Storm Saola possibly impacting land by the end of the week

Good afternoon from the Western Pacific Weather team.

A tropical depression (27W) is struggling to form into a closed area of intense circulation due to some shear on this Tuesday. However, it does look like that the system will be able to organize itself and intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday. (UPDATE: Tropical Depression 27W has now intensified into Tropical Storm Saola as of 4 p.m. JST according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.) This development will create some concern for those in the Western Pacific, particularly for those toward the north, as models seem to indicate a general trend toward the north as we head toward the end of the week. However, there is significant disagreement as to whether the system will actually make landfall or will end up moving out into the open waters due to a trough that could curve it out to sea. We will just have to wait and see how this system moves as we go through the next few days.

It is likely, however, that for the next couple of days, the system will force a westerly flow over the southern Philippines, increasing the amount of drenching rainfall through Wednesday and into Thursday. Residents in Mindanao and the surrounding islands should prepare to deal with heavy rainfall and flash flooding during the middle of this week.

Jonathan Oh
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather

20171024 Visible Satellite

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About Jonathan Oh

Jonathan Oh is a meteorologist on Western Pacific Weather and appearing on NHK World. Jonathan has been working in the field for more than 10 years with a focus on broadcast, radar, and computer model forecasting. He is currently based in Tokyo, Japan.

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