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Archive | October, 2019

Tropical Storm Matmo Forms West of the Philippines

The 22nd named storm of 2019 in the Western Pacific has formed west of the Philippines and towards the east of Vietnam. The storm at this time (Wednesday

DVORAK ESTIMATE

Morning ) is gaining a bit of strength and does look rather organized on satellite imagery. In fact it’s DVORAK ESTIMATE (right) has continued to slowly climb indicating a strengthening storm.

Good news Matmo will not have a terrible amount of time to intensify in to anything to intense. Plus a bit of dry air from the north will keep it from getting to large either. This is why JTWC and JMA keep it as a tropical storm over the next 72hrs as it moves west coming on shore in central Vietnam Wednesday night in to Thursday morning. The main issue with this storm will be rainfall especially in the hills just inland from the coast. Just south and east of Da Nang specifically in south central Vietnam.

With that sad much needed rainfall will also flow in from the west behind this storm across the Philippines. Much of the country has been in drought this summer. One reason for that is the lack of typhoons to hit the country in 2019. In fact none at all have moved over the main island of Luzon which is quite unusual. The end result is a net water loss. So this little enhancement of moisture will bring rain. But to much of course could be problematic so in heavier rainfall areas flooding can still be a risk.

On another note, As well as getting westernpacificweather.com up and running again as well. This will take time and a little bit of money but it is something I have planned. So please check out this page.

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Tropical Low Over the Philippines Bringing Heavy Rainfall

We are nearing the end of October and albeit we not in the peak of tropical season we are still well within realm of possibility of more storms to develop in the western Pacific. In fact the concept of a “typhoon season” is not really a reality in in the western pacific.

Location of Tropical Low

With that said a new Tropical low is bringing scattered rain showers across the Philippines today. This area of low pressure will bring localized heavy showers and the possibility of urban flooding to start of f the week in the Philippines. Localized areas as much as 50 to 150mm of rainfall is possible.

GFS RAINFALL OUTLOOK

Numerical models including the GFS and the ECMWF model are both expecting this storm to develop in to a tropical depression and even a possible tropical storm over the South China Sea before moving in to Vietnam later this week. Sea surface temperatures remain warm enough for intensification in to a Typhoon as well but wind shear may keep that possibility at bay and currently numerical guidance does not indicate that to occur.

ECMWF OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY

If you are being impacted by this low please let me know. On another note I have decided to get this “blog” going again. As well as getting westernpacificweather.com up and running again as well. This will take time and a little bit of money but it is something I have planned. So please check out this page.

Also remember you can follow me on

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Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)