Tropical Low Over the Philippines Bringing Heavy Rainfall

We are nearing the end of October and albeit we not in the peak of tropical season we are still well within realm of possibility of more storms to develop in the western Pacific. In fact the concept of a “typhoon season” is not really a reality in in the western pacific.

Location of Tropical Low

With that said a new Tropical low is bringing scattered rain showers across the Philippines today. This area of low pressure will bring localized heavy showers and the possibility of urban flooding to start of f the week in the Philippines. Localized areas as much as 50 to 150mm of rainfall is possible.

GFS RAINFALL OUTLOOK

Numerical models including the GFS and the ECMWF model are both expecting this storm to develop in to a tropical depression and even a possible tropical storm over the South China Sea before moving in to Vietnam later this week. Sea surface temperatures remain warm enough for intensification in to a Typhoon as well but wind shear may keep that possibility at bay and currently numerical guidance does not indicate that to occur.

ECMWF OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY

If you are being impacted by this low please let me know. On another note I have decided to get this “blog” going again. As well as getting westernpacificweather.com up and running again as well. This will take time and a little bit of money but it is something I have planned. So please check out this page.

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