Archive | November, 2019

Typhoon Kammuri / Tisoy (30th November Update) Will impact Luzon Monday

The Philippines continue to prepare for what will likely be the strongest typhoon of the year for the tropical pacific country. Good news though today a blast of cool northerly winds sheared Kammuri (locally known as Tisoy) but this will only be short lived before the storm starts to make its turn west towards the Philippines.

In fact the latest forecast from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the official agency of the Western Pacific shows winds up to 100 gusting 140kts with a pressure down to 925hpa. This would make for a potential damaging storm system across the highest populated regions of Bicol through Manila. This track is very similar to Glenda and Remming which both cause significant damage to Manila.

Possible Impacts

Winds

A damaging wind threat of course exist with this storm. According to JMA could come on shore in southern to Central Luzon with winds gusting over 140kts. Yet with sea surface temperatures remaining over 30 degrees in the Philippine sea there is a potential of strengthening prior to landfall making winds even higher. Any structures along the coast not make of concrete could suffer wind damage.

Storm Surge

There are plenty of bays in inlets along the south east of coast of Luzon that could help trigger a funneling effect as Kammuri moves near the shore. If that takes place a significant storm surge may accompany Kammuri. Plus as winds shift from the west across Manila bay a coastal storm surge in the capitol may also take place on Tuesday. Places like Roxas BLVD that are known for flooding will likely flood.

Rainfall

As with any tropical system making landfall a lot of rain will come with it. The storm may slow down a bit after coming on shore which will result in high amounts of rain. According to latest GFS models upwards of 400-500mm is possible. That is enough to trigger local flooding and landslides.


Organizers at the South East Asian Games say they are prepared for the storms impacts. They did note some events could be delayed or cancelled while indoor events are expected to go on as normal. The games start November 30th and run through December 11th.


Also remember you can follow me on

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Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Typhoon Kammuri Likely to impact the SEA games and the Philippines

Typhoon Kammuri is starting to make a left hand turn west today towards the Philippines. Over the course of the weekend as it tracks through the Philippine sea it will move in to an area of favorable intensification allowing it to strengthen to a possible super typhoon before coming on shore in southern or central Luzon from Bicol through areas just east of Metro Manila. This of course means the SEA games could be impacted. They start on the 30th of November and through through early December in the Manila area and Clark City both in central Luzon.

Possible Impacts

Winds

A damaging wind threat of course exist with this storm. According to JTWC it could come on shore in southern to Central Luzon with winds gusting over 100kts. Yet with sea surface temperatures remaining over 30 degrees in the Philippine sea there is a potential of strengthening prior to landfall making winds even higher. Any structures along the coast not make of concrete could suffer wind damage.

Storm Surge

There are plenty of bays in inlets along the south east of coast of Luzon that could help trigger a funneling effect as Kammuri moves near the shore. If that takes place a significant storm surge may accompany Kammuri. Plus as winds shift from the west across Manila bay a coastal storm surge in the capitol may also take place.

Rainfall

As with any tropical system making landfall a lot of rain will come with it. The storm may slow down a bit after coming on shore which will result in high amounts of rain. According to latest GFS models upwards of 400-500mm is possible. That is enough to trigger local flooding and landslides.

Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Kammuri Passes South Of Guam, Further Intensification likely. 27th Nov 2019

Kammuri blew past Guam to the south Tuesday bringing with it rather consistent gusty winds upwards of 40-50kts according to reports at the Guam NWS. All schools and government offices are closed Wednesday, partly due to the storm and also due to the Thanksgiving holiday which is celebrated on the remote American island in the pacific. Travel of course will be impacted in and out of the island as well.

One issue for Guam will be the effects from a secondary low developing on the back side of Kammuri. It’s a little quirk of an area that I would not expect to become anything strong but it will allow for weather conditions to remain messy for Guam well in to Thursday. As we are already seeing it will get absorbed in to Kammuri eventually and allow it to intensify more so.

Beyond Guam the forecast has become more and more confident in that the storm will slow down in to the weekend before a cold surge pushes Kammuri back west again.

The thing is there is still a lot of questions about the forecast. And despite the fact the outlook is increasing in confidence it is still undoubtedly unconfident. This is even wrote in the JTWC PROG reasoning as of the 27th. A passing trough out of Japan could pull it north it the overall steering flow breaks down. If the storm does not have enough pull though it will set back up under the influence of a incoming cold surge behind the trough pushing it back west towards the Philippines. This is why the extended forecast remains low confidence with this storm. Once it passes Guam and the trough sets up on it the confidence in the forecast will increase dramatically.

The South East Asian Games start on the 30th in Manila so a lot of people really want to know if the storm will impact them. They run through the 11th of December. Of course if the storm does track west it will have a impact on the Philippines and the games.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert