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Archive | November 1, 2019

Long Range GFS Hints with Several Lows Already Brewing (November 2nd)

The tropics still remain “active” in a sense today, there is a few areas of note located near the Philippines and east of Guam while the long range GFS is hinting at something stronger late next week.

First I would like to address the long range outlook given the persistence of the GFS model the past 48hrs from writing this. Back to back model runs being persistent on development is nothing to ignore with the latest run showing a full blown Typhoon near the Philippines late next week. Here is the thing the initialization of this area is not very reliable given there is still no center of low pressure where the model is picking up on its development. With that said looking over 250 hours out in a forecast is something to only been done with the understanding it is to be taken only at face value. That is is a numerical model output and not a forecast. Check the latest model runs at Tropical Tidbits here.

Meanwhile there still invest 99W located east of Guam and a Low Pressure Area over the Philippines. Both of these according to JMA will become a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

Satellite Imagery

Invest 99W in fact looks the most interesting on the morning of November 2nd. The center of circulation is clear on Infrared Satellite imagery with conditions ahead of it favorable for development. Yet a passing trough will cause it to turn north before it impacts any land areas directly.

Lastly currently over the Philippines is a Low Pressure area worth watching as well. This has already brought much needed rainfall for the country and more is set to come. The graphic below shows the expected rainfall (ECMWF) over the next 72hrs. This lpa is also expected to become a Tropical Depression in the next 48hrs according to JMA and is also worth watching for a possible Tropical storm much like Matmo the last storm only a week ago.

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On another note, I’m still working on getting the website running more so with some new and unique content. You can contact me at any of the locations below if you have suggestions or advise on what I could get done here.

And one more note, I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

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Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

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Few Areas in the Tropics to Watch this weekend.

There are a few areas in the tropics worth watching this weekend in to next week. At this time I don’t expect anything major out of them but at the same time we could have another named storm system kicking up the seas east of Guam and in the South China Sea.

Area 1

First let’s talk about the area now over the Philippines which is bringing scattered rain showers to the country. Heading in to next week this wave of moisture could get a little assist from a passing upper level trough out of China to allow just enough vorticity to create some development. The 18Z GFS MODEL RUN on the 31st does exactly this as well as with the previous 5 runs. In short there is decent confidence of something forming in the South China Sea between Vietnam and the Philippines next week.

Area 2

Out near the international date line there is a trough that is not quite a full on low pressure area based on ASCAT imagery but enough of something to warrant watching. Good news so far out to the east and with such potent westerly waves moving by Guam next week this should hook north and not impact anyone.

Area 3 (Matmo Remnants)

Now over Indo-China and raining out. Still getting swept up with the South West Monsoon though.

On another note, I’m still working on getting the website running more so with some new and unique content. You can contact me at any of the locations below if you have suggestions or advise on what I could get done here.

And one more note, I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

On another note, As well as getting westernpacificweather.com up and running again as well. This will take time and a little bit of money but it is something I have planned. So please check out this page.

Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com