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Long Range GFS Hints with Several Lows Already Brewing (November 2nd)

The tropics still remain “active” in a sense today, there is a few areas of note located near the Philippines and east of Guam while the long range GFS is hinting at something stronger late next week.

First I would like to address the long range outlook given the persistence of the GFS model the past 48hrs from writing this. Back to back model runs being persistent on development is nothing to ignore with the latest run showing a full blown Typhoon near the Philippines late next week. Here is the thing the initialization of this area is not very reliable given there is still no center of low pressure where the model is picking up on its development. With that said looking over 250 hours out in a forecast is something to only been done with the understanding it is to be taken only at face value. That is is a numerical model output and not a forecast. Check the latest model runs at Tropical Tidbits here.

Meanwhile there still invest 99W located east of Guam and a Low Pressure Area over the Philippines. Both of these according to JMA will become a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

Satellite Imagery

Invest 99W in fact looks the most interesting on the morning of November 2nd. The center of circulation is clear on Infrared Satellite imagery with conditions ahead of it favorable for development. Yet a passing trough will cause it to turn north before it impacts any land areas directly.

Lastly currently over the Philippines is a Low Pressure area worth watching as well. This has already brought much needed rainfall for the country and more is set to come. The graphic below shows the expected rainfall (ECMWF) over the next 72hrs. This lpa is also expected to become a Tropical Depression in the next 48hrs according to JMA and is also worth watching for a possible Tropical storm much like Matmo the last storm only a week ago.

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On another note, I’m still working on getting the website running more so with some new and unique content. You can contact me at any of the locations below if you have suggestions or advise on what I could get done here.

And one more note, I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Also remember you can follow me on

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Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

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