Archive | November 5, 2019

Super Typhoon Halong now the strongest Typhoon of 2019 ( Possibly the Strongest Cyclone?) Recon in the Western Pacific Would Be Nice

Typhoon Halong has shown us once again how the dynamics of the Western Pacific can blow a storm up from a moderate cyclone to a full on Hulked out Roided up Super Storm in the matter of hours.

Halong as of writing this (Overnight the 5th in to the 6th of November in the western pacific) is estimated have winds based on a one minute wind scale of 140kts from JTWC. (Update, was upgraded to 155kts sustained peak)Good news the storm is forecasted to veer north and east and will eventually get absorbed with a passing trough shooting it off in to the North Pacific with no impact to any land masses directly. That’s why this storm is a perfect specimen to discuss why recon would be a valued asset in the Western Pacific.

The key word I wrote earlier is “estimated” when discussing the wind speed of Halong. That is because when a storm is over the open ocean there is no way to get a accurate measure of wind outside of flying a plane in to the storm. Which in the Western Pacific is only done rarely by Taiwan, China and Japan. (Video shows JMA announcing they were going to fly recon a few years ago)

That is why in the remote oceans in the Western Pacific the DVORAK Technique is used. This is basically using satellite analysis and getting a “T” number, the final “T” number will give you the rough estimate of a cyclonic storm.

The “T” number of Halong is 7.8 at it’s peak which would give it winds of 164kts or 188mph, this is eight miles an hour higher than Dorian which currently is the strongest storm of 2019. (Update JTWC did upgrade the storm to 160kts) The T Number though is not the final output and a member of the JTWC takes a look at the storm and more or less makes an educated guess on the storms intensity. Which they have made it peak at 150kts.

By the way the T Number for Dorian the current holder of the strongest storm of 2019 was 6.5 compared to Halong’s 7.8. ( The highest since Haitian by the way.) The difference is Dorian had a hurricane hunter fly through which recorded max wind of 180 mph. This takes out the human factor for the initial intensity and also provides proof of the storms intensity.

For more information on this topic here is a great publication from the American Meteorological Society on how DVORAK WORKS. Any tropical weather GURU should take a moment and read through it.

IN SUMMARY I believe if we had recon fly out of Guam like we did in the 70s in the Western Pacific Halong would have official records that show the storm is the strongest of 2019 and a lot of useful scientific data would come with such a flight as well. This is just my thoughts though, considering it is a fish storm I believe it is a good storm to consider this too.

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Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert