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Archive | November 6, 2019

Tropical Storm Nakri Forms West of the Philippines

The 24th Named Storm of the Season has been designated by JMA near the Philippines. This newly formed Tropical Storm is called Nakri and is set to be a decent rain maker in the Philippines and Vietnam.

This storm spun up along the tail end of a massive cold front moving south of China as does happen often this time of year. Currently the storm does have a lot of convection and continues to wrap up nicely, but due to the storms location along with dry air impacting it from the North I would not expect to become a typhoon but as we have seen most recently with Halong storms can sometimes intensify much higher than anticipated.

With that said what do I anticipate?

Currently JMA and JTWC both have the storm drifting west slowly making landfall eventually in Vietnam as a Severe Tropical Storm by Friday in to Saturday. The winds of course could bring some direct issues to weak structures in Vietnam as well as Beach erosion but my bigger concern is the rainfall with this storm.

It is dragging in moisture from the North East Across Luzon bringing with it much needed rainfall on the island. Some areas could get as much as 400-500mm of rain according to the latest run of the GFS model. (Tuesday Evening)

Of course to much rain can cause issues but much of Luzon is rather dry right now and water rationing has been in place for Manila for a few weeks. Thus the rain is going to be a welcomed relief for many. Meanwhile in Vietnam a same situation is in the forecast yet with the recent impact from Matmo the ground could be unstable in spots leading to landslides and flooding.

Matmo left 14 injured and 1 person missing according to the Associated Pres.

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