Archive | November 12, 2019

Tropical Depression Ramon, a big Philippine Rain Maker

As we head in to mid-November the tropics remain relatively active today with two tropical depressions in the western pacific.

First is a relatively weak area just east of the Philippines named by PAGASA as “Ramon”. The storm is relatively weak but it’s interaction with the north east monsoon will create gusty conditions across northern Luzon along with moderate to heavy rain showers across Cagayan and Eastern Luzon for that matter. According to PAGASA residents in these areas “, especially those living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to flooding and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take precautionary measures, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm or Rainfall Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings to be issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.”

Based on the latest numerical models from the EMCWF and GFS upwards of 400-500mm of rainfall is possible in local areas of NE Luzon. The Cagayan Valley could see around 50-100mm of rain as well while Manila being on the dry sector of the storm will see much less from Ramon. The NCR actually has not received very much rainfall at all recently. This has prompted water restrictions in the Manila area, one reason for this is the lack of any typhoons to really impact Luzon at all this year. This can be good news but the general ecosystem relies on storms like Ramon or stronger typhoons to bring vital rainfall, and as we start to head towards the dry season this problem may only get worse.

The long range GFS model does indicate another tropical system though by next week, granted the GFS has been to put in frank, over doing a lot of its long range model outputs. If each GFS model for 360hours out was correct we would have a typhoon every single day in the western pacific. Check out “Tropical Tidbits for a look yourself.”

— Elsewhere Fengshen is way out to sea and I”m not all to worried about it, just to know it’s there and that it’s the 25th named storm of 2019. To put that in perspective if this storm was in the Atlantic it would be named Delta since ally he names for 2019 would have been exhausted.

Also remember you can follow me on



Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert