Archive | November 14, 2019

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi / Ramon Impacting the Philippines

A disorganized mess of a storm continues to swirl off the east coast of the Philippines today bringing scattered showers up and down the countries eastern Sea board. This all thanks to Tropical Storm Kalmaegi or Ramon as it is known in the Philippines.

The key thing to note with this storm is that it will be a big rain maker in northern Luzon, in fact upwards of 300-400 mm of rain is possible creating localized flooding and possible landslides in Northern Luzon from the Cagayan Valley East maybe. Manila on the other hand should miss out on most of the rain.

There is some debate on if this storm will become a typhoon though, at this time the low level circulation remains rather disorganized and stretched to the north east thanks to an upper level through out of China. If the low level swirl does consolidate enough it could develop in to a full on typhoon and track north east as the forecast from JMA depicts. Yet I agree more with the graphic below from JTWC keeping the storm relatively weak as it struggles against wind shear moving across the Philippines this week. In fact I would be surprised it remains a severe tropical storm for long either. *Still bringing rainfall though*

Unfortunately not much rainfall is expected in Manila and the NCR for that matter from this storm. This area remains dry and water restrictions are in place for parts of the region. The lack of any real storms over Manila is the culprit for this. One thing to note though is in the extended forecast models continue to detect a possible typhoon some where in the country. We can in fact see where the possible storm could develop well out to sea south of Guam. But now with the convection there and a low level swirl starting to show it’s face I feel more comfortable discussing the possibility with this storm. For now though we will watch it closely and I think tomorrow I’ll have more information on this next possible storm.

Lastly Fengshen the most impressive storm in the Western Pacific right now has been upgraded to a typhoon by the Japan Meteorological agency. The storm has triggered typhoon warnings for the Northern Mariana Islands and will bring some messy weather across the Ogasawara islands in Japan as well but will in the end re-curve and head out to sea.

Lastly and I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know!

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