Archive | November 16, 2019

Possible Fung-Wong / Sarah could Impact the Philippines or not Next Week… What We Know Now

As of the 16th of November 2019 in the Western Pacific there are two active storm systems brewing, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi and Fengshen. Two potent storm systems in their own rights; but today the number one question I have received is about a storm system that has not yet even developed as of typing this. There is no invest area on it and no agency has even mentioned it and the JMA weather map does not even have a low pressure area designated. Why am I discussing it? Mainly because numerical models have been showing the potential for a storm system for a few days now, that information has been picked up by social media and then spread like wild fire to the point where people are already in a panic. Always remember to double check your sources of information and make sure you are getting that information from a decent source.

Good source for new updates can also be found here.

WITH THAT SAID, what do we know right now. As of the morning of the 16th of November in the western pacific no agencies have mentioned this storm. The GFS model has been consistent on it’s development though for a few days now bringing a strong storm on shore in southern Luzon by the 20th in to the 21st. (THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL HAPPEN, JUST WHAT THAT MODEL IS SHOWING BELOW)

The thing about models like this is you need a decent low level circulation to help indicate the model. That is why based on the latest run from the EURO the out put is a lot different with a monsoonal low more or less impacting the Philippines. Thus without a Tropical depression or a Low Pressure area at this time I would take what a model forecast is showing with some caution. The common expression is if you put garbage in you will get garbage out. That is why the forecast will improve a lot once a low pressure area forms.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi / Ramon Still a Rain Maker (16th November Update)

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi / Ramon continues to struggle under a high amount of vertical wind shear to start off the weekend on the 16th of November 2019. This all thanks to an upper level trough located just north of the Philippines which is skewing most of the storms cloud cover to the north and east. Based on the current forecast though the shear should let off a bit heading in to the weekend allowing the storm to slowly move east and bring a persistent amount of moderate to heavy rain showers along the eastern coast of Luzon. That is why at this time there is still a flood and landslide threat for the area.

PAGASA stated

– Tomorrow, light to moderate with occasional heavy rains may be experienced over the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains over Apayao, Northern Aurora and the rest of Isabela and Cagayan.

  • -Residents in the aforementioned areas, especially those living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to flooding and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take precautionary measures, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm or Rainfall Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings to be issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.

In short the storm will continue to linger in the area but it becoming a typhoon is unlikely. As well as little rainfall for the Manila area which continues to suffer from a water crisis. Meanwhile another area of weather is developing south of Guam and will be something interesting to watch this week.

Good links for information on this storm.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/27W/27W_floater.html

https://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1925.html

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/