Possible Fung-Wong / Sarah could Impact the Philippines or not Next Week… What We Know Now

As of the 16th of November 2019 in the Western Pacific there are two active storm systems brewing, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi and Fengshen. Two potent storm systems in their own rights; but today the number one question I have received is about a storm system that has not yet even developed as of typing this. There is no invest area on it and no agency has even mentioned it and the JMA weather map does not even have a low pressure area designated. Why am I discussing it? Mainly because numerical models have been showing the potential for a storm system for a few days now, that information has been picked up by social media and then spread like wild fire to the point where people are already in a panic. Always remember to double check your sources of information and make sure you are getting that information from a decent source.

Good source for new updates can also be found here.

WITH THAT SAID, what do we know right now. As of the morning of the 16th of November in the western pacific no agencies have mentioned this storm. The GFS model has been consistent on it’s development though for a few days now bringing a strong storm on shore in southern Luzon by the 20th in to the 21st. (THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL HAPPEN, JUST WHAT THAT MODEL IS SHOWING BELOW)

The thing about models like this is you need a decent low level circulation to help indicate the model. That is why based on the latest run from the EURO the out put is a lot different with a monsoonal low more or less impacting the Philippines. Thus without a Tropical depression or a Low Pressure area at this time I would take what a model forecast is showing with some caution. The common expression is if you put garbage in you will get garbage out. That is why the forecast will improve a lot once a low pressure area forms.

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