New Tropical Depression Formed East of the Philippines

The Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded the area south of Guam to a Tropical Depression. This means it is still on track to develop in to a storm system likely this week and impact the Philippines by Thursday.

How strong the storm will get really depends on a few factors ranging from wind shear to moisture inflow. If history repeats itself though this area of the Philippine Sea is prone to development and intensification. That is why at this time it is still hard to forecast just how strong the storm will get.

The direction seems probable for central and Northern Luzon based on latest numerical guidance and the overall back ground flow around the westpac high and a passing upper level trough out of China.

Of course the big issue is going to be rainfall, Kalmaegi is currently bringing heavy rain showers across northern Luzon, that following Matmo and Nakri just over the past few weeks in the same area. In short it is very saturated and flooding and landslides could be a problem with the large amount of rainfall in the forecast.

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Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

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