New Tropical Threat Developing in the Western Pacific

A new tropical system has named a TD by JMA south east of Guam. This can be seen on the map below. This area is expected to wrap up an intensify likely in to named storm over the next 72hrs near Guam and the Mariana islands. The interaction with the low and the Westpac high should actually create some rather windy conditions across Guam and Saipan from Tuesday through Wednesday with heavy showers at times as well. Check the Guam NWS for latest on warnings for the island chain.

BUT there are still a lot of questions to be had here in the long range. There is a divergence in the long range guidance with some of the numerical outputs taking the storm north and out to sea staying south of Japan while others hold the westpac high in place pushing the storm east in to the Philippines. At this time the long range forecast beyond the next 72hrs is very uncertain.

I take six minutes in this video to break down what is the steering flow, what the models are showing and what your take away should be at this time.

https://youtu.be/0uU69AqW79o

Thus those from Okinawa, to Taiwan to the Philippines should keep an eye out in the tropics but that is about it at this time. *IMPORTANT NOTE* Remember what happened with ”Sarah” and how there were social media post saying it would be a big typhoon in the central Philippines And then nothing of the sort took place. Keep that in mind when sharing information on social media on these storms. Even when you are reading my post I always suggest checking a second source and of course with JMA, JTWC and PAGASA.


Also remember you can follow me on

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Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

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