Archive | November 27, 2019

Kammuri Passes South Of Guam, Further Intensification likely. 27th Nov 2019

Kammuri blew past Guam to the south Tuesday bringing with it rather consistent gusty winds upwards of 40-50kts according to reports at the Guam NWS. All schools and government offices are closed Wednesday, partly due to the storm and also due to the Thanksgiving holiday which is celebrated on the remote American island in the pacific. Travel of course will be impacted in and out of the island as well.

One issue for Guam will be the effects from a secondary low developing on the back side of Kammuri. It’s a little quirk of an area that I would not expect to become anything strong but it will allow for weather conditions to remain messy for Guam well in to Thursday. As we are already seeing it will get absorbed in to Kammuri eventually and allow it to intensify more so.

Beyond Guam the forecast has become more and more confident in that the storm will slow down in to the weekend before a cold surge pushes Kammuri back west again.

The thing is there is still a lot of questions about the forecast. And despite the fact the outlook is increasing in confidence it is still undoubtedly unconfident. This is even wrote in the JTWC PROG reasoning as of the 27th. A passing trough out of Japan could pull it north it the overall steering flow breaks down. If the storm does not have enough pull though it will set back up under the influence of a incoming cold surge behind the trough pushing it back west towards the Philippines. This is why the extended forecast remains low confidence with this storm. Once it passes Guam and the trough sets up on it the confidence in the forecast will increase dramatically.

The South East Asian Games start on the 30th in Manila so a lot of people really want to know if the storm will impact them. They run through the 11th of December. Of course if the storm does track west it will have a impact on the Philippines and the games.


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Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert