Archive | November 28, 2019

Typhoon Kammuri Likely to impact the SEA games and the Philippines

Typhoon Kammuri is starting to make a left hand turn west today towards the Philippines. Over the course of the weekend as it tracks through the Philippine sea it will move in to an area of favorable intensification allowing it to strengthen to a possible super typhoon before coming on shore in southern or central Luzon from Bicol through areas just east of Metro Manila. This of course means the SEA games could be impacted. They start on the 30th of November and through through early December in the Manila area and Clark City both in central Luzon.

Possible Impacts


A damaging wind threat of course exist with this storm. According to JTWC it could come on shore in southern to Central Luzon with winds gusting over 100kts. Yet with sea surface temperatures remaining over 30 degrees in the Philippine sea there is a potential of strengthening prior to landfall making winds even higher. Any structures along the coast not make of concrete could suffer wind damage.

Storm Surge

There are plenty of bays in inlets along the south east of coast of Luzon that could help trigger a funneling effect as Kammuri moves near the shore. If that takes place a significant storm surge may accompany Kammuri. Plus as winds shift from the west across Manila bay a coastal storm surge in the capitol may also take place.


As with any tropical system making landfall a lot of rain will come with it. The storm may slow down a bit after coming on shore which will result in high amounts of rain. According to latest GFS models upwards of 400-500mm is possible. That is enough to trigger local flooding and landslides.

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