Archive | November, 2019

New Tropical Threat Developing in the Western Pacific

A new tropical system has named a TD by JMA south east of Guam. This can be seen on the map below. This area is expected to wrap up an intensify likely in to named storm over the next 72hrs near Guam and the Mariana islands. The interaction with the low and the Westpac high should actually create some rather windy conditions across Guam and Saipan from Tuesday through Wednesday with heavy showers at times as well. Check the Guam NWS for latest on warnings for the island chain.

BUT there are still a lot of questions to be had here in the long range. There is a divergence in the long range guidance with some of the numerical outputs taking the storm north and out to sea staying south of Japan while others hold the westpac high in place pushing the storm east in to the Philippines. At this time the long range forecast beyond the next 72hrs is very uncertain.

I take six minutes in this video to break down what is the steering flow, what the models are showing and what your take away should be at this time.

https://youtu.be/0uU69AqW79o

Thus those from Okinawa, to Taiwan to the Philippines should keep an eye out in the tropics but that is about it at this time. *IMPORTANT NOTE* Remember what happened with ”Sarah” and how there were social media post saying it would be a big typhoon in the central Philippines And then nothing of the sort took place. Keep that in mind when sharing information on social media on these storms. Even when you are reading my post I always suggest checking a second source and of course with JMA, JTWC and PAGASA.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Very Early Look Invest 94W (23rd of August 2019)

Here is a very early look at invest 94W way out in the Marshal islands and still an un-organized area of cloud cover. None the less it is in an area of favorable development and model guidance from ECMWF, GFS and CMC has been persistent on developing a storm system in the Philippine sea this upcoming week. With that said I scoped out where a storm could possible go here based on the current atmospheric setup in place. That being the Westpac High located north of Guam, the monsoonal trough pushing in out of China and the general background easterlies in the tropics.

Thus those from Okinawa, to Taiwan to the Philippines should keep an eye out in the tropics but that is about it at this time. *IMPORTANT NOTE* Remember what happened with ”Sarah” and how there were social media post saying it would be a big typhoon in the central Philippines And then nothing of the sort took place. Keep that in mind when sharing information on social media on these storms. Even when you are reading my post I always suggest checking a second source and of course with JMA, JTWC and PAGASA.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Visible Satellite Imagery Show a Stripped Fung-wong

Sunrise over Japan is showing us what Fung-Wong looks like today, visible satellite shows plenty of low level cumulus around the low pressure center in what I like to call a “super swirl” although with no convection aloft this storm is a far cry from anything significant, just neat to look like on satellite imagery. 

Otherwise the storm has weakened and is no longer threat of developing further, it did bring some scattered showers to the southern Japanese islands along its eastern flank on Sunday but that’s about all she wrote on that one.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Severe Flooding in Northern Luzon, and Fung-Wong Update

The back to back impacts from Matmo, Nakri, Kalmaegi and now Fung-Wong have left northern Luzon beyond saturated. This simply means the ground is unable to soak up any more rainfall and severe flooding has taken over.

The photos above were shared to the Cagayan government facebook page showing the current state of the area after a double impact from Kalmaegi (Ramon) and Fung-Wong (Sarah) in the region.

The goverment has already sent first responders to the area to help people stranded by the rising waters. According to the NDRRMC recovery efforts are still on going with assets being set in to that direction.

At the very least though it does look like a little bit of a break this upcoming weekend and in to next week with the NE Monsoon setting back in for northern Luzon.

Meanwhile in the southern Japanese islands and Northern Taiwan are feeling impacts from a ”morphed system” today, a combination of Tropical Storm Fung-Wong and a cold surge which is resulting in gusting winds. Winds upwards of 45-50mph have been reported by JMA in Okinawa Pref. And the temperature is Has been relativly cool there too, a bit of a warm up will take place though as Fung-wong slowly moves north across southern Japan all along weakening as well. This is to be expected given the time of the year it is though.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert