Archive | November, 2019

Tropical Depression Sarah and Ramon (PH NAMES) 20th November 2019

Tropical Depression ”Sarah” has now been named by PAGASA. The storm is only about 24-48hrs out from impacting Luzon and is rather close to Kalmaegi now located over Cagayan and the Luzon straight. Thanks to their close proximity Kalmaegi is more or less getting pulled north west towards northern Luzon. (Thus Southern Luzon and Visayas are out of the picture) Also this will help spread out the energy of the two storms thus keeping them relatively weak.

Take a look at the video below where I more or less explain this interaction taking place.

https://youtu.be/9iS2B0ZFPi0

The impacts will mainly be the rainfall and the threat of flooding. Kalmaegi is currently bringing heavy rain showers across northern Luzon, that following Matmo and Nakri just over the past few weeks in the same area. In short it is very saturated and flooding and landslides could be a problem with the large amount of rainfall in the forecast.

Please visit here for the latest on this storm and Tropical Depression Ramon “Kalmaegi” as well.

Also remember you can follow me on

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Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

New Tropical Depression Formed East of the Philippines

The Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded the area south of Guam to a Tropical Depression. This means it is still on track to develop in to a storm system likely this week and impact the Philippines by Thursday.

How strong the storm will get really depends on a few factors ranging from wind shear to moisture inflow. If history repeats itself though this area of the Philippine Sea is prone to development and intensification. That is why at this time it is still hard to forecast just how strong the storm will get.

The direction seems probable for central and Northern Luzon based on latest numerical guidance and the overall back ground flow around the westpac high and a passing upper level trough out of China.

Of course the big issue is going to be rainfall, Kalmaegi is currently bringing heavy rain showers across northern Luzon, that following Matmo and Nakri just over the past few weeks in the same area. In short it is very saturated and flooding and landslides could be a problem with the large amount of rainfall in the forecast.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Kalmaegi / Ramon Nearing Landfall

One of the most stubborn storms of the year known as Kalmaegi or Ramon in the Philippines is finally starting to drift west over Luzon today. The storm is also bringing with it heavy rainfall for the northern areas of the Island with Cagayan seeing upwards of 300-400mm of rainfall with this storm. Winds will also be and issue at times with possible gust upwards of 100kph according to PAGASA. This will mainly be along the northern stretches of Luzon from Aparri west.

Of course as mentioned for nearly a week now the main issue with Kalmaegi is not the wind, it’s all about the rainfall with this slow moving stubborn storm. In fact PAGASA has noted those under Signal Force Warnings. ” especially those living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to flooding and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take appropriate actions, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm or Rainfall Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings to be issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions. “

This comes on the heal of heavy rainfall earlier this month as well with Matmo and then Nakri (Queil) thus saturating the area and creating an even higher threat of flooding. In fact the area was hit hard in the Cagayan valley with 11 towns experiencing serious flooding. Thus relief is already heading in to the area and hopefully will arrive soon after Kalmaegi passes.

Another issue will be the Next storm in the forecast, the verdict is still out on how strong it will get but at this time it continues to look like even more rainfall for northern Luzon, the GFS total rainfall outlook is below showing some areas over 800mm in total.


lso remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Possible Fung-Wong / Sarah could Impact the Philippines or not Next Week… What We Know Now

As of the 16th of November 2019 in the Western Pacific there are two active storm systems brewing, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi and Fengshen. Two potent storm systems in their own rights; but today the number one question I have received is about a storm system that has not yet even developed as of typing this. There is no invest area on it and no agency has even mentioned it and the JMA weather map does not even have a low pressure area designated. Why am I discussing it? Mainly because numerical models have been showing the potential for a storm system for a few days now, that information has been picked up by social media and then spread like wild fire to the point where people are already in a panic. Always remember to double check your sources of information and make sure you are getting that information from a decent source.

Good source for new updates can also be found here.

WITH THAT SAID, what do we know right now. As of the morning of the 16th of November in the western pacific no agencies have mentioned this storm. The GFS model has been consistent on it’s development though for a few days now bringing a strong storm on shore in southern Luzon by the 20th in to the 21st. (THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL HAPPEN, JUST WHAT THAT MODEL IS SHOWING BELOW)

The thing about models like this is you need a decent low level circulation to help indicate the model. That is why based on the latest run from the EURO the out put is a lot different with a monsoonal low more or less impacting the Philippines. Thus without a Tropical depression or a Low Pressure area at this time I would take what a model forecast is showing with some caution. The common expression is if you put garbage in you will get garbage out. That is why the forecast will improve a lot once a low pressure area forms.