Archive | December, 2019

Two Tropical Areas To Watch Near the Philippines

Two invest areas are located east of the Philippines today and both show the potential to bring an increase in rain across the central and southern Philippines. At this time nothing points towards a full on typhoon but a tropical depression or weak tropical storm is possible. First a tropical depression I feel is likely based on my analysis near Mindanao and Visayas this weekend. (Be sure to check PAGASA for official forecast) Meanwhile by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week another Invest (98W) could develop and impact the Philippines. Ensemble models show low confidence on exactly where this could take place but there is confidence of at least a tropical depression from Southern Luzon to more likely Mindanao or Visayas. Of course at this time the areas are still invest and have no official warnings on them. This simply means the forecast is highly uncertain at this time especially since there is no low level circulation for the numerical guidance to jump on. I’ll have another video as soon as I can to keep people posted. Stay safe out there!

Flooding Continues in Northern Luzon, Remnants of the Kammari and the NE Monsoon

The north east monsoon and the remnants of Kammuri continues to to impact the northern Philippines with gusty winds and flooding. Parts of Cagayan are still seeing heavy showers today with localized flooding thanks to the North East Monsoon creating additional lift behind Kammuri. Eventually the cool air will come in with the monsoon bringing some “cool” conditions for the for the Philippines. Relatively cool at least. Another area of rain will develop with Invest 95W Early next week too, nothing organized but more rain for sure.

https://youtu.be/ceL0y9ZpoZk

Typhoon Kammuri / Tisoy Making Landfall

After some rapid intensification just prior to landfall Typhoon Kammuri is now coming on shore in the Bicol Region of South East Luzon. At this time over 3,000 people have been evacuated and thousands more are stranded after flights and ferries were cancelled.

Winds

A damaging wind threat of course exist with this storm. According to JMA could come on shore in southern to Central Luzon with winds gusting over 130kts. Yet with sea surface temperatures remaining over 30 degrees in the Philippine sea there is a potential of strengthening prior to landfall making winds even higher. Any structures along the coast not make of concrete could suffer wind damage.

Storm Surge

There are plenty of bays in inlets along the south east of coast of Luzon that could help trigger a funneling effect as Kammuri moves near the shore. If that takes place a significant storm surge may accompany Kammuri. Plus as winds shift from the west across Manila bay a coastal storm surge in the capitol may also take place on Tuesday. Places like Roxas BLVD that are known for flooding will likely flood.

Rainfall

As with any tropical system making landfall a lot of rain will come with it. The storm may slow down a bit after coming on shore which will result in high amounts of rain. According to latest GFS models upwards of 400-500mm is possible. That is enough to trigger local flooding and landslides.


Organizers at the South East Asian Games say they are prepared for the storms impacts. They did note some events could be delayed or cancelled while indoor events are expected to go on as normal. The games start November 30th and run through December 11th.


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Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert