Archive | December, 2019

Flooding Continues in Northern Luzon, Remnants of the Kammari and the NE Monsoon

The north east monsoon and the remnants of Kammuri continues to to impact the northern Philippines with gusty winds and flooding. Parts of Cagayan are still seeing heavy showers today with localized flooding thanks to the North East Monsoon creating additional lift behind Kammuri. Eventually the cool air will come in with the monsoon bringing some “cool” conditions for the for the Philippines. Relatively cool at least. Another area of rain will develop with Invest 95W Early next week too, nothing organized but more rain for sure.

https://youtu.be/ceL0y9ZpoZk

Typhoon Kammuri / Tisoy Making Landfall

After some rapid intensification just prior to landfall Typhoon Kammuri is now coming on shore in the Bicol Region of South East Luzon. At this time over 3,000 people have been evacuated and thousands more are stranded after flights and ferries were cancelled.

Winds

A damaging wind threat of course exist with this storm. According to JMA could come on shore in southern to Central Luzon with winds gusting over 130kts. Yet with sea surface temperatures remaining over 30 degrees in the Philippine sea there is a potential of strengthening prior to landfall making winds even higher. Any structures along the coast not make of concrete could suffer wind damage.

Storm Surge

There are plenty of bays in inlets along the south east of coast of Luzon that could help trigger a funneling effect as Kammuri moves near the shore. If that takes place a significant storm surge may accompany Kammuri. Plus as winds shift from the west across Manila bay a coastal storm surge in the capitol may also take place on Tuesday. Places like Roxas BLVD that are known for flooding will likely flood.

Rainfall

As with any tropical system making landfall a lot of rain will come with it. The storm may slow down a bit after coming on shore which will result in high amounts of rain. According to latest GFS models upwards of 400-500mm is possible. That is enough to trigger local flooding and landslides.


Organizers at the South East Asian Games say they are prepared for the storms impacts. They did note some events could be delayed or cancelled while indoor events are expected to go on as normal. The games start November 30th and run through December 11th.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Typhoon Kammuri / Tisoy Nearing Landfall

Kammuri or locally known as Tisoy has slowly attempted to gain strength today but still remains a somewhat disorganized cluster of storms. Prior to landfall though it does still look like a Cat 1 or Two at landfall with the threat of Storm Surge and heavy rains. Some areas as much as 2 ft or about 600mm. This may not be a “Haiyan” type setup since it’s not a super typhoon by any means but, it still is going to be a dangerous storm for some. Here are my latest thoughts.

Be sure to check PAGASA for the latest updates on the warnings.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

Possible Impacts

Winds

A damaging wind threat of course exist with this storm. According to JMA could come on shore in southern to Central Luzon with winds gusting over 130kts. Yet with sea surface temperatures remaining over 30 degrees in the Philippine sea there is a potential of strengthening prior to landfall making winds even higher. Any structures along the coast not make of concrete could suffer wind damage.

Storm Surge

There are plenty of bays in inlets along the south east of coast of Luzon that could help trigger a funneling effect as Kammuri moves near the shore. If that takes place a significant storm surge may accompany Kammuri. Plus as winds shift from the west across Manila bay a coastal storm surge in the capitol may also take place on Tuesday. Places like Roxas BLVD that are known for flooding will likely flood.

Rainfall

As with any tropical system making landfall a lot of rain will come with it. The storm may slow down a bit after coming on shore which will result in high amounts of rain. According to latest GFS models upwards of 400-500mm is possible. That is enough to trigger local flooding and landslides.


Organizers at the South East Asian Games say they are prepared for the storms impacts. They did note some events could be delayed or cancelled while indoor events are expected to go on as normal. The games start November 30th and run through December 11th.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert