Archive | December 18, 2019

Two Tropical Areas To Watch Near the Philippines

Two invest areas are located east of the Philippines today and both show the potential to bring an increase in rain across the central and southern Philippines. At this time nothing points towards a full on typhoon but a tropical depression or weak tropical storm is possible. First a tropical depression I feel is likely based on my analysis near Mindanao and Visayas this weekend. (Be sure to check PAGASA for official forecast) Meanwhile by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week another Invest (98W) could develop and impact the Philippines. Ensemble models show low confidence on exactly where this could take place but there is confidence of at least a tropical depression from Southern Luzon to more likely Mindanao or Visayas. Of course at this time the areas are still invest and have no official warnings on them. This simply means the forecast is highly uncertain at this time especially since there is no low level circulation for the numerical guidance to jump on. I’ll have another video as soon as I can to keep people posted. Stay safe out there!