Archive | March 27, 2020

Invest 93W South Of Guam, 27 March 2020

The tropical Pacific is starting to heat up yet again, typically by this time of year we do already have a few named storms in the tropical pacific but this year has been relatively calm. This leading to warm sea surface temperatures across the doldrums south of Guam. With additional potential energy available any invest area needs to be watched closely.

25 March Tropical Update
Western Pacific Satellite Imagery

With that said we now haven’t invest 93W located south of Guam. Current ASCAT imagery (shown) below does indicate a weak circulation but nothing terribly organized.

Numerical models are not overlay eager on it’s development either with the GFS attempting to form a weak low while the ECMWF completely leaves any development of 93W off the table as of March 27th.

Thus at this time I would not expect anything to develop of significance from this tropical trough south of Guam. Ulithi and Palau likely will see an increase in rainfall through the weekend and in to early next week but unless the forecast changes (which I don’t expect) then the Philippines will miss out on any development from this low.