Archive | February 17, 2021

WHAT IS A TROPICAL INVEST AREA?

Pierre Montes ask, “what is an invest”. It’s actually a pretty legit question. Sometimes as meteorologist we spout out these random phrases that we think everybody understands but sometimes I understand you may not know what exactly it means. Especially with an invest area, because it has no real meteorological definition.

That is outside of being an area of convection in the tropics. Furthermore, it’s an American thing. Meaning it actually denoted by the National Hurricane Central, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. An invest area is labeled when simply one of these agencies see a tropical disturbance that is interesting and should be investigated further. Thus when labeled there is an increase in data collection and processing on these areas via a number governmental and academic websites.

NRL Monterey and the University of Wisconsin for example. This also helps inject additional data in to numerical guidance which helps us predict them better. The naming system is rather simple as well. Basically they run from 90 to 99 followed by a letter indicating where they are in the world. L indicating the Atlantic, e the eastern pacific, c the central pacific and w the western pacific. Why 90? Well unless something insane happens the nomenclature we use to name storm systems and the invest areas should never overlap. That is having upwards of 90 storms in one season in the basin. Hope that helps answer that question. If you have any questions yourself you write them in the comments below or hit me up at @robertspetawx on twitter or Robert Speta Weather on Facebook.

2021 TYPHOON SEASON PREDICTION CONTEST

This year’s “FIRST TYPHOON CONTEST” is upon us. It is meant to practice in long range forecasting and see where people stand as far as storm development. Now through February 1st you can post your guess as to when the First Typhoon will form (VIA JMA, THEY ARE THE OFFICIAL WMO AGENCY)

SUBMISSIONS WERE CLOSED FOR THIS ON FEBRUARY 1st. BELOW ARE THE PREDICTIONS FROM OUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECASTERS

Ma MonrealJanuary 20th
Millicent SignoJanuary 26th 
Sara ObenitaJanuary 26th
Carmelo BalbinJanuary 31st
Bravo NovemberJanuary 31st
Richard UyJanuary 31st
Arnold E. SantiagoFebruary 1st
Jake AquinoFebruary 2nd
Jeremy RebuaFebruary 2nd
Lourdy PalmaFebruary 4th 
Jack CartagenaFebruary 5th
Mart JoshFebruary 5th 
John RodriguezFebruary 5th
John RodriguezFebruary 5th
Ruben PiliFebruary 7th
Ne Ri ZaFebruary 8th
Chano NaraFebruary 10th
Maridel RalletaFebruary 11th
Gue MoFebruary 12th
May CarilloFebruary 13th
James BrunnerFebruary 14th
Jayson BarramedaFebruary 14th 
Orly Braga CamasisFebruary 14th
Meloy NaloFebruary 14th
Cha LonozaFebruary 14th
Shie PnFebruary 15th
John PastoralFebruary 16th
Gene RubillaFebruary 16th
Venus AjeroFebruary 17th
John FebresFebruary 17th
Kim VictorioFebruary 18th
Elmer CuicoFebruary 18th
Elmer CuicoFebruary 18th
April DonesFebruary 19th
Carl AlzagaFebruary 20th
John AysonFebruary 21st
Carl AlzagaFebruary 20th
John Nigel ManuelFebruary 20th
Jaro Oliveros February 22nd
Eddie LaoFebruary 8th
Mark ZabalaJanuary 29th
James BrunnerFebruary 14th
Jhoan OgoirdaFebruary 9th
Rose AnonuevoFebruary 6th
Nitz Alaurin NuñezFebruary 14th
Dennis CaguioaFebruary 14th
Bryan DelantarFebruary 15th
John Rafael JoseFebruary 18th
Nino CuevasJanuary 24th
Neths CanaldaFebruary 21st
Ogie SandiegoFebruary 10th
Lina ArnedoFebruary 12th
Arnold SantiagoFebruary 1st
Marjie AranaFebruary 14th 
Nitz GabiolaFebruary 20th
Elmer CuicoFebruary 18th
Ma Andrea MonrealFebruary 9th
Russel LucenaFebruary 14th
Ma Andrea MonrealFebruary 9th
Elizabeth AvilaFebruary 10th
Su QuintanaFebruary 25th
Adriel AvilaFebruary 25th
John CadagFebruary  26th
Boowwet BooFebruary 27th
Jhoy BesmonteFebruary 28th
Wendz NovaFebruary 2nd
SNikkerson BarcenaMarch 5th
Carl NaigMarch 6th
Carl EscuroMarch 7th
John Latecki JrMarch 12th
Alliboc NyradMarch 17th
Ron LynMarch 18th
Rommel Z. de LeonMarch 19th
Jermaine GainesMarch 20th
Cata SiguenzaMarch 20th
Denver PascualMarch 21st
Badd GerrMarch 22nd
Jepoy ParconMarch 26th
Ezekiel CastorMarch 26th
Jhuniel LogronioMarch 27th
Marvin NavarroMarch 28th
Marvin NavarroMarch 28th
Jaimelyn RosarioMarch 4th
Jaimelyn Del RosarioMarch 4th
Carl NaigMarch 6th
Carl EscuroMarch 7th
Bhaby M BuendiaMarch 8th
JE BaborMarch 9th
Eds MirandaMarch 9th
Ma MarcaydaApril 1st
Mary PalermoApril 10th
Ciliro HilarioApril 13th
Mariveth BrionesApril 14th
Patrick TiuApril 15th
Nikko CapirosoApril 15th
Glen CuarezApril 16th
Dino BayApril 17th
Joseph NobleApril 19th
Jaimelyn RosarioApril 22nd
Pamela LoretchaApril 24th
Moeung MonyreakApril 24th
AL RitApril 27th
Cabanas Binas April 28th
RalfApril 30th
Michael Mcglinch April 9th
Emil ClutarioMay 1st
Selwyn Kent OñedoMay 1st
Carl ReyesMay 1st 
Romeo AngelesMay 2nd
Val LeddyMay 2nd
Aaron IcardiMay 3rd
Chidori McEnteeMay 4th
Mon DemesaMay 7th
Ramon DemesaMay 7th
Manly UgaldeMay 5th
Aldon SantosMay 9th
Romeo SungaMay 10th
JR AmbayecMay 10th
Sherwin MonuzMay 10th
John PeraltaMay 11th 
DinoBengamin PerezMay 12th
Rica Toledo ArandiaMay 12th
Richard RecondayMay 13th
Jethro ToledoMay 15th
Jason Rees May 15th
Terenz CabaldoMay 15th
Pierre MontesMay 15th
Jason ReesMay 15th
Jeff ? May 15th
Rey AlonsagayMay 15th
Mark Allen TonidoMay 16th
Elbert PazMay 16th
Bernard AguilarMay 17th
Bernard AguilarMay 17th
Deliah NepisonMay 18th
Vanessa Delos SantosMay 21st 
Ralph E. CastilloMay 21st 
Mike BladeMay 22nd
Brad GeMay 24th
Lav TongabajaMay 24th
MG LangMay 25th
Arnold MoranMay 25th
Ai RabejeMay 26th
Armel MurilloMay 27th
Jet ReblandoMay 28th
Nólan SamudioMay 29th
Lisa LiveanuMay 30th
Dar WinMay 30th
Barakah HunterMay 31st
Mark ChanMay 31st
Angela OcampoJune 1st
Marco LegarseJune 10th
Elvin EmpleoJune 15th
Carmz RamirezJune 18th
Clark EligueJune 19th
Roland MooreJune 21st
Renz YanzonJune 22nd
Ray TanegaJune 27th
John RovicJune 28th
Kharm yo GoJune 28th
Alexis MarieJune 28th
Mike VanProoyenJune 28th
Mark SantoniaJune 28th
Aimee Rose LozanoJune 8th
Leandro BaldemorJuly 1st
Marlon SaluntaoJuly 16th
Jer OgoirdaJuly 21st
Macmod AmoreAugust 12th
Michael CollinsSeptember 3rd

Tropical Depression Auring / Dujuan Near Landfall in the Philippines

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Tropical Auring / Dujuan was upgraded to a Tropical Storm today as it nears Mindanao and Visayas. Yet after it moves onshore it will weaken quickly thanks to a cold surge flowing in out of China. Thus the track looks scary I know but the big thing is the intensity of it as it tracks north and the moisture load in NE Mindanao and Eastern Visayas where serious flooding will take place.

The biggest rainfall threat will be in South East Visayas and North East Mindanao where wide spread 100mm plus of rainfall is likely creating a flood threat / landslide threat for the area.

Thus on the JTWC track if you look close at the intensity it has it weakening… LONG Range I’m watching for impacts on Okinawa.. there is a SMALL SMALL chance of it moving north but not enough of a threat to worry at this time.

Lastly remember that Mindanao does not typically get heavy rainfall like this and there is a decent chance of flooding here. Even with the same amount of rain that would not create as much of a mess further north. Image below in fact shows the Signal Force Warnings today. Very rare to have them in SE Mindanao.


The bigger impact further north in to Okinawa is the inflow of cold wind across the island associated with a cold surge today.