WesternPacificWeather.com

Pierre Montes ask, “what is an invest”. It’s actually a pretty legit question. Sometimes as meteorologist we spout out these random phrases that we think everybody understands but sometimes I understand you may not know what exactly it means. Especially with an invest area, because it has no real meteorological definition.

That is outside of being an area of convection in the tropics. Furthermore, it’s an American thing. Meaning it actually denoted by the National Hurricane Central, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. An invest area is labeled when simply one of these agencies see a tropical disturbance that is interesting and should be investigated further. Thus when labeled there is an increase in data collection and processing on these areas via a number governmental and academic websites.

NRL Monterey and the University of Wisconsin for example. This also helps inject additional data in to numerical guidance which helps us predict them better. The naming system is rather simple as well. Basically they run from 90 to 99 followed by a letter indicating where they are in the world. L indicating the Atlantic, e the eastern pacific, c the central pacific and w the western pacific. Why 90? Well unless something insane happens the nomenclature we use to name storm systems and the invest areas should never overlap. That is having upwards of 90 storms in one season in the basin. Hope that helps answer that question. If you have any questions yourself you write them in the comments below or hit me up at @robertspetawx on twitter or Robert Speta Weather on Facebook.

This year’s “FIRST TYPHOON CONTEST” is upon us. It is meant to practice in long range forecasting and see where people stand as far as storm development. Now through February 1st you can post your guess as to when the First Typhoon will form (VIA JMA, THEY ARE THE OFFICIAL WMO AGENCY)

SUBMISSIONS WERE CLOSED FOR THIS ON FEBRUARY 1st. BELOW ARE THE PREDICTIONS FROM OUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECASTERS

Tropical Auring / Dujuan was upgraded to a Tropical Storm today as it nears Mindanao and Visayas. Yet after it moves onshore it will weaken quickly thanks to a cold surge flowing in out of China. Thus the track looks scary I know but the big thing is the intensity of it as it tracks north and the moisture load in NE Mindanao and Eastern Visayas where serious flooding will take place.

The biggest rainfall threat will be in South East Visayas and North East Mindanao where wide spread 100mm plus of rainfall is likely creating a flood threat / landslide threat for the area.

Thus on the JTWC track if you look close at the intensity it has it weakening… LONG Range I’m watching for impacts on Okinawa.. there is a SMALL SMALL chance of it moving north but not enough of a threat to worry at this time.

Lastly remember that Mindanao does not typically get heavy rainfall like this and there is a decent chance of flooding here. Even with the same amount of rain that would not create as much of a mess further north. Image below in fact shows the Signal Force Warnings today. Very rare to have them in SE Mindanao.

The bigger impact further north in to Okinawa is the inflow of cold wind across the island associated with a cold surge today.