Archive | April, 2021

Super Typhoon Surigae / Bising

Typhoon Surigae known as Bising in the Philippines continued to strengthen today maxing out with winds at Category 5 intensity. Not a common occurrence this time of year but not unheard of. Just 5 years ago Typhoon Maysak was a Super Typhoon in the Philippine Sea in late March. The storms track continues to pull north and will likely stay off shore of the Philippines but close enough to still cause problems with the outer rain bands.

At this time the official track does keep the storm east of the Philippines but close enough where it still can create problems including scattered showers and gusty winds on the east coast due to the outer rain bands as well as large waves.

Based on the latest forecast the east coast of Samar through South East Luzon will see Tropical Storm Strength conditions from Saturday – Monday. For those in the area they should be at least be making preparations including having a plan in place in case an evacuation is needed.

With that said the Philippines does remain in the “cone of error” which means there is still a chance this storm could waver just a bit further west which would create a major difference in the overall impacts from the storm.

LATEST TRACK FROM JTWC

IR SAT

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Developing Tropical Depression near Yap

I can’t stress this enough in this update. I have more questions than answers in making this forecast. I been doing westpac storms for over a decade and this is one of the more difficult ones. Right now the video is for informational purposes to get an idea of whats going on and to know what could happen. Waiting for more information from the official agencies though.

Please check out the video discussing the latest forecast on this developing Tropical Depression.

Philippines and the Long Range Tropical Outlook

In today’s update we discuss the extended forecast the potential of a tropical system late this week in to next week.

There is a solid split in model guidance with some taking the developing low north as a much stronger storm near Guam. Yet CMC and ECMWF keeps it south and pulls it towards the Philippines.

The option of a more westerly tracking storm seems to be more likely but really at this time there is still a very large amount of uncertainty on where, when and how strong this storm could or would become.

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Western Pacific April Tropical Outlook

Today we take a look at what some long range guidance is showing south of of Guam. At this time this is just pure analysis and watching but it’s good to know what could develop if the guidance is accurate. Plus a quick look at windy conditions this weekend in to Okinawa.

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