It’s been nearly a month since the last named storm system rolled through the western Pacific, that was Tropical Storm Omais and since then things have been calm. Now we have two areas, one is TD 17W SE of Japan and for the first time in a while though model guidance has been hinting at development near Guam and moving in to the Philippine Sea Next late next week. This is still very early but at least for the time being it is worth watch.

Key thing is at this time there is plenty of convection near Guam that could initialize a storm system. If anything was to develop it would run along the southern periphery of the west pac high anchored south east of Japan. Thus bringing it in to the Philippine Sea.

Thus the general direction of any development is semi confident. It’s all about the initializing though and is why at this time it’s worth watching.

Meanwhile there is another area near the Ogaswara islands right now, no worries on impacts with this but it is there.

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