Archive | November, 2021

New Storm developing in the Philippine Sea

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is now warning on the Tropical Depression near Guam. A high surf advisory is in place for the entire Mariana islands as well as scattered showers here into Tuesday. Despite the track showing a turn to the northeast the JTWC discussion does state pretty clearly that there is low confidence in the extended outlook and there is some split in the model guidance on if the storm will quickly turn north, stall out or linger and move west. The bulk of the guidance still turns it north and east with that said and thus it is reflected on the JTWC track. If this storm is named it will be called Nyatoh by JMA and Odette by PAGASA.

Western Pacific Tropical Update November 28th.

The tropics are starting to heat up yet again in the western pacific, after a month-long break during a time we would at least see one or two named storms.

In today’s update, we take a look at a new invest area spinning up near Guam.

Philippine Tropical Outlook, LPA, and the Shear line

The LPA east of the Philippines is still looking more and more organized today, good news once it hits that shear line expect it to be torn apart into the weekend. Still expect heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms from Visayas then tracking north into next week bringing rain as well into Central Luzon. Still some time to see exactly how much but I think it could be heavy at times. I’ll have a new video coming up soon on this.

16th November 2021 Tropical Outlook

Tracking an LPA and a few tropical waves out over the western pacific today. In short no typhoons in the forecast but that does not mean everything will be dry either.

  1. The LPA over the Sulu sea is bringing plenty of rainfall from Cebu to Palawan today. Few areas could see local flooding and even the threat of landslides.
  2. The shear line over Luzon is also triggering locally heavy rainfall in the Cagayan valley. This setup will remain in place through Wednesday.
  3. A new tropical wave is passing Guam, it has been raining there on and off for the past 48hrs and more rain is on it’s way due to the wave. This area is not expected to become a typhoon but will increase in organzition a bit before hitting the shear line with the cold surge later this week in to the weekend. This will increase showers in the Philippines. First in Visayas then lifting north in to Luzon by Sunday in to Monday.