Archive | December, 2021

Tropical Storm Rai / Odette Strengthens in the Philippine Sea.

A bit of dry air flowing into Rai has leveled out the intensification into it over the last few hours, but once that gets squeezed out and the storm tracks a bit further west the forecast expects quick intensification into Wednesday east of Mindanao.

New Tropical System Developing in the Philippine Sea

JMA and PAGASA are now warning on the Tropical system south of Guam in the Philippines Sea. Both agencies anticipate this storm to become a Tropical storm and then eventually a Typhoon before landfall in North East Mindanao and South East Visayas.

At this time the track of the storm is rather confident as most models are all onboard with the forecast for the storm. The intensity still remains questionable as the Philippine sea can surprise us with rapid intensification prior to landfall. Thus those ahead of the storm need to prepare and take local warnings and advisories seriously

On another note, a big shoutout to the early warning from PAGASA, giving a early glance at the forecast of this storm.

Developing System South of Guam, 11th December 2021

Tracking the Low-Pressure area south of Guam today, this still looks to be on track to form into a named storm by this weekend. It’s still early course so there are questions in the long-range, mostly the intensity of this area and if it will become a Typhoon or now. But the confidence in it moving west towards the Philippines still remains high. Thus prepping now and not panicking is the smart thing to do.

Western Pacific Tropical Update, 05 December 2021

For my tropical westpac friends no named storms out there today but there is a weak tropical wave formed up along the leading edge of the NE Monsoon off the coast of Visayas. This will bring some decent rainfall over the next few days along the east coast there with a few areas seeing well over 100mm over the next 5 days. Meanwhile, the long-range looks calm, there are some phantom storms being pushed by the GFS into next week but nothing to worry about for now.