Archive | January 18, 2022

Developing Tropical Low in the Philippine Sea this week

A new January tropical system on the horizon? Possibly… a weak tropical wave south of Guam today is displaying plenty of convection but little organization right now. The problem is as it nears the Philippines model guidance shows something spinning up off the coast of Mindanao by the weekend into early next week.
Thus there are a few scenarios that could happen. 1) A storm does blow up and becomes named prior to landfall. Still brings plenty of rainfall across Mindanao. 2) A weak LPA moves over the southern Philippines early next weekend bringing rain. 3) A disorganized wave of convection moves over the Southern Philippines and brings rain.
All three scenarios bring rainfall. WIth the presence of the westpac high to the north and the shear line very VERY unlikely a recurve scenario would be possible. In short be ready for some rainfall at the very least for our friends still recovering from Typhoon Odette.