Archive | April, 2022

Watching the tropical western pacific.

Tropical easterlies are dominating across the western pacific today. But there is a tropical wave worth watching southeast of Guam. Let’s discuss some of the latest on what’s going on out there.

Today PAGASA now watching the tropical wave near Chuuk for possible development. At this point the chance of development is “low” but the chance is there nonetheless. Guidance continues to remain split on if we see something develop or not as well but one thing is consistent, at least an increase in rainfall with a tropical disturbance into late next week. Unfortunately, this could be for the same areas impacted by Agaton this past week as well. At this point as with any long-term forecast don’t panic, watch for the latest updates.

LONG RANGE TROPICAL OUTLOOK

Today PAGASA now watching the tropical wave near Chuuk for possible development. At this point the chance of development is “low” but the chance is there nonetheless. Guidance continues to remain split on if we see something develop or not as well but one thing is consistent, at least an increase in rainfall with a tropical disturbance into late next week. Unfortunately, this could be for the same areas impacted by Agaton this past week as well. At this point as with any long-term forecast don’t panic, watch for the latest updates.

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Typhoon Malakas strengthens near the Ogasawara islands of Japan.

Typhoon Malakas / Basyang is not over yet, the storm has backed off on intensity just a bit. According to JTWC winds are now down to 100kts sustained on Thursday night. Typhoon conditions are likely on the Ogasawara islands where at this time tropical storm conditions are already being seen. Meanwhile, the storm will also combine with gradient-induced conditions along with coastal areas of Honshu creating breezy conditions from Tohoku to Shizuoka. Not damaging but sure a noticeable wind.

Good news for my friends across the Philippines, as Malakas / Basyang pulls north it is dragging in shear and dry air behind it. Furthermore, the slow movement of these storms has stirred up deep ocean water causing upwelling and thus cooler SSTs. What does that mean? Well, it means at least for now less energy out there for tropical development in the near/long term. At least for the rest of April. That’s not a farfetched assumption though considering it’s still April but still it’s welcomed news.

Death toll rises as the Philippines cleans up after Tropical Storm Agaton brought record heavy April Rainfall

As of April 14, 2022 of 8AM, NDRRMC has reported 76 deaths due to TS Agaton/ #Megi.

Most of the deaths being reported right now are from Eastern Visayas due to landslides.

These numbers are expected to increase further as the day goes by.

#Pilipinas#Agaton

Nakapagtala ng 76 na patay (as of April 14, 2022 ng 8AM) ang NDRRMC dahil sa bagyong Agaton.

Karamihan ng namatay ay sa Silangang Visayas kung saan maraming naitalang pag guho ng lupa.

Ang mga numero na ito ay inaasahang tataas pa habang lumilipas ang mga araw.

Here is a image of a landslides blocking major roads in 3rd District Engineering Office in the province of Leyte.

Landslides, are not just prone to damaging communities, but can also block major routes which will hinder the relief operation.

Above is a report of verified #Landslide incidents in different parts of Visayas and Mindanao. For almost a week, rain has fallen in Central and Southern Philippines due to Agaton/ #Megi.

There are high concentration of landslide reports in Leyte and Southern Leyte with more info to come.

This is as of April 12, 2022 (from NDRRMC Report)

#Pilipinas#Agaton

Narito ang mga beripikadong ulat tungkol sa #Pagguho ng lupa sa ibat ibang parte ng #Visayas at #Mindanao. Halos isang linggo rin inulan ang gitnang bahagi at babang bahagi ng Pilipinas dahil kay Agaton.

Maraming report ng pag guho ng lupa na naitala sa probinsya ng Leyte and Southern Leyte. Ito ay inaasahang dadagdag pa habang pumapasok ang ibang mgai mpormasyon sa ibang lugar.

Ang mga impormasyon dito ay kuha sa NDRRMC Report (ika 12 ng Abril, 2022)

Here is a quick graphic showing the timeline of #PAGASA issuing heavy #rainfall#warning in Central and Eastern #Visayas.

#Agaton/ #Megi has moved very slow in the coasts of Visayas and even stayed stationary for days dumping lots of rain in different provinces.

Here are some quick stats on what happened so people can grasp the situation out there in the provinces.

1. PAGASA has issued Heavy Rainfall Warning that started on April 5 and ended on April 13. This was when Agaton was still a LPA until it dissipated.

2. The longest consecutive Red Rainfall Warning was issued for #SouthernLeyte which lasted for more than a day.

3. The longest Heavy Rainfall Warning was issued for Southern portion of #EasternSamar which lasted for more than 5 days.

4. The province of #Leyte was under red Rainfall Warning for about 39 hours in a span of 3 days.

All information were obtained through backtracking PAGASA’s Rainfall Warning Bulletins

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-Lex