A complex setup continues across the Western Pacific. So let’s break it down into sections including discussing the fun FUJIWARA effect. The video and graphics below help visualize it.

1) JTWC has upgraded the storm South of Guam to a Tropical Storm and it is expected to become a typhoon. Those who need to worry about that storm of YAP and the OGASAWARA islands in Japan.

2) Another LPA continues to linger near Mindanao and will likely become a tropical depression bringing rainfall across the southern half of the Philippines into the weekend and next week.

3) FUJIWHARA EFFECT and the dance of the storms. The simple definition of a Fujiwara effect is when two storms pinwheel around each other. More often the case is the strong storm takes the lead on the dance and whips the smaller storm around. That is likely to happen next week as the then Typhoon in the Philippine Sea drags the LPA over the Philippines back east.

Whenever we discuss this type of setup though it makes for a very tricky forecast and is why you need to continue to monitor for new updates. I mean I got on my flight from the Philippines 24hrs ago and already the updates have changed. So stay safe out there. (updated while on a weather delay at Boston Intl. Airport, so no video today)

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