Archive | June, 2022

Tropics heating up in the western pacific

Several tropical areas in the western pacific today. Both invest 97 and 98w forming a large monsoonal gyre. As always in this update, I discuss what you can expect.

The 4th of July weekend COULD bit a bit messy thanks to a tropical low to the south of Okinawa as well. The key thing is this is not developed yet but based on current guidance we could be looking at some nasty weather from Saturday into Sunday. In short maybe instead of making a mad dash to the NEX for extra beer, you should double-check those standard typhoon supplies we should have all typhoon season.

June out like a Lamb, July in like a Lion?

All remains calm in the Tropical Western Pacific today. But all good things must come to an end though. I believe based on data I’m seeing now June will go out like a lamb but July will kick in like a lion. Long-range climate models and ensemble guidance continues to show increased activity in the first and second week of July. THIS DOES NOT MEAN I know if a typhoon will hit your home. Just means this calm pattern we are in now will be coming to an end soon enough.

Westpacwx Update 17 June 2022

For my Western Pacific friends, the tropics remain rather calm out there and really look like they will be through the end of the month. The big topic remains to be the Tsuyu front which, to be honest, has been brutal from South-Western Japan to China to even Luzon in the Philippines. This stubborn front continues to bring more rainfall to this area.. On the plus side, its shear is one reason why we continue to have a lack of support in the tropics.