Obet moves towards Luzon and a new storm looms near Guam

Tropical Depression Obet continues to struggle with its organization today as wind shear with the latest cold surge pushes in against it from the north. That interaction though will set up yet more rainfall across northern Luzon through Saturday morning as the storm track north of Luzon over the Batanes islands. Flooding and landslides will be possible as rain totals could add up over 100mm in spots.

Plus inflow from the storm and surge will bring additional showers to Taiwan.

Meanwhile, our attention also is focused on an area near Guam which at this time is a broad area of convection. But looking ahead guidance pulls this area west with the easterlies and onshore by late next week as a strong storm and possible typhoon. Given the area of the Philippine sea south of the cold surge intensification of this disturbance would be likely if it does initialize first. Its that time of year when storms end to shift further south with the changing seasons so a system developing in this area near Guam would be right about on schedule. Plus Sea Surface temperatures remain above average here providing more energy for strengthening.

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